By Chris Marler
We have a really good slate of games this weekend in college football. I don’t know if it’s the hangover from the last two weeks having great slates as well or what, but it is simply not being talked about nearly enough.
In the SEC alone, there are six total games this weekend and half of them feature ranked opponents. We have two very live dogs in Auburn and LSU that are underdogs by a field goal or less on the road and–spoiler alert–I think they both win outright.
Tomorrow is Friday, which means we will have our weekly deep dive of Numbers to Know for Week 9 games on Louisianasports.net. For today, here is one matchup that I think will dictate and/or decide each SEC game this weekend.
Ole Miss vs Oklahoma: Ole Miss’ pass rush vs Oklahoma’s offensive line
Ole Miss is coming off a bye week, and features one of the best pass rushes in the country. The Rebels rank top ten nationally in sacks (24) and tackles for loss (66) this season, and have been a nightmare for offensive lines for almost every game excluding their trip to Baton Rouge. Oklahoma on the other hand features an offensive line that ranks 127th in tackles for loss allowed (56) and 133rd in sacks allowed (29). The Sooners offensive line gave up nine sacks to nine different players a week ago to South Carolina and have allowed 15 total in their last two games.
Arkansas vs Mississippi State: Turnovers
I thought about the run game being a deciding factor here considering that Arkansas is fourth in the SEC in rushing yards per game (176.4) and rushing touchdowns this season (20). And, Mississippi State ranks last in touchdowns allowed this season with 15.
However, as bad as Mississippi State has been at times this season, if there’s one thing that could lead to them pulling off an upset as a touchdown underdog it’s turnovers. That feels a bit like a copout and an obvious statement, but hear me out.
Arkansas has the second worst turnover margin in the SEC this season at minus-5 and second most turnovers in the league with 12. Mississippi State throws the ball more than 32 times a game and has just three interceptions all year. Michael Van Buren has played three games as a true freshman starter, all three have come against top five teams, and two of them have been on the road. He has six touchdowns and just two interceptions despite it.
Alabama vs Missouri: Deep Passing Plays
Both these offenses love to take deep shots in the passing game. It’s one of, if not the best, attribute of Jalen Milroe’s game, and it’s something that Missouri’s offense does often as well despite not having as much success in it. Missouri ranks second-to-last in the SEC in pass plays over 20 or more yards this season with 18 while Alabama has 26. The Tide also ranks top four in the league in plays over 40, 50, and 60 yards.
Missouri’s defense has allowed the fewest long pass plays in the SEC with just 11 total completions of 20 yards or more all season. That also ranks third nationally. When Alabama’s offense has been their most successful this season it’s been when they’ve taken shots downfield. They’ll have to get back to that this weekend if they want to get a win and keep their playoff hopes alive.
Texas vs Vanderbilt: Texas QBs vs Vanderbilt’s Pass Defense
Texas quarterbacks have looked like world beaters for every game except one. Granted, that game was the most recent one and that one also is the best competition they have faced all season. You can easily make the case that Vanderbilt will be the Longhorns second biggest test this year on Saturday in Nashville.
The matchup that will have the biggest impact on the game? That’s simple, the Texas quarterbacks against Vanderbilt’s secondary and pass defense. Texas is ranked in the top 20 nationally in total yards, passing yards, completion percentage, yards per attempt and quarterback rating. Vanderbilt’s defense ranks 83rd in yards per play allowed (5.6), 107th in completion percentage (64.3 percent), and 86th in quarterback passer rating (135.5).
If Ewers (and maybe Manning) can get back to non-Georgia form, Texas should bounce back in a big way against the Commodores.
LSU vs Texas A&M – Both Passing Offenses vs Both Passing defenses
There are several matchups that standout in this game. The one that most fans, and NFL scouts, are excited for is the A&M defensive line and the LSU offensive line. Nic Scourton against Will Campbell and Emery Jones is going to be awesome to watch. However, the passing offenses for both teams against the passing defenses for both teams is what I think will have the biggest impact on this game.
LSU’s defense has improved a lot this season, but it still ranks in the bottom three in the SEC in completion percentage, passing yards, passer rating, yards per attempt and passing yards per game. A&M on the other hand ranks fifth in opponent passer rating, third in total interceptions, and first overall (and tenth nationally) in opponent completion percentage.
Expect both teams to try and take away the run and have this game be decided on the backend of each defense.
Auburn vs Kentucky – Payton Thorne vs Brock Vandagriff
Hands down the craziest stat I have seen all year involves the Auburn Tigers. There are only seven teams in the country that average over 6.5 yards per play on offense and allow less than five yards per play on defense. Ohio State, Ole Miss, Indiana, Texas, Penn State, Army, and Auburn. The six teams not named Auburn that fall into that category are a combined 36-4. Auburn is 2-5.
They have been great between the 20’s. And outside of that one debacle, a nightmare of a game against Cal, Payton Thorne has actually been really good. Excluding that game in week two, he has 12 touchdowns and two interceptions on the year. Brock Vandagriff has not been good this season. At all.
Vandagriff has six touchdowns on the season and three of those came in the opener against hapless Southern Miss. He ranks last in the SEC in completion percentage, passing yards per game, passer rating, and is second to last in pass yards per attempt.
Auburn ranks in the top 13 nationally in yards per play, yards per attempt and yards per completion. Kentucky ranks 106th or worse in opponent completion percentage, yards per completion, yards per attempt, and opposing quarterback rating.
