ESPN FPI updated their analytics and projections to simulate the percentage odds to win for every SEC game in the Week 10 slate.
There are seven games in total this weekend around the SEC, five of the seven featuring conference matchups.
While this is the first time all season that there isn’t a single ranked matchup on the SEC slate, there are still plenty of great games and storylines. We have cocktail parties, trophy games, iconic moments from SEC West lore, and the artist/game formerly known as The Battle for the Beer Barrel between Kentucky and Tennessee.
Here’s a look at the odds to win each game from ESPN’s FPI predictor.
19 Ole Miss at Arkansas
FPI Prediction: Ole Miss 74.2%
Vanderbilt at Auburn
FPI Prediction: Arkansas 63.3%
Oklahoma vs. Maine
FPI Prediction: Oklahoma 98.4%
2 Georgia vs. Florida
FPI Prediction: Georgia 79.9%
Mississippi State vs. Massachusetts
FPI Prediction: Mississippi State 92.2%
10 Texas A&M at South Carolina
FPI Prediction: Texas A&M 54.0%
Kentucky at Tennessee
FPI Prediction: Tennessee 90.9%
What stands out most for this week’s games? Auburn is favored by a touchdown against Vanderbilt in what is the most blatant example of logo disrespect from not only the FPI, but Vegas, as well. Auburn is 22-21-1 all-time against Vanderbilt and just 2-2 against them in their last four games dating back to 2008. Three of those four games have been decided by a touchdown or less.
Vandy is 5-0 against the spread as an underdog this season. However, Auburn returns to Jordan-Hare for the first time since September 28. Auburn lost their last two games at home before their month-long road trip. However, they haven’t lost three consecutive home games at Jordan-Hare in over 12 years.
Also, Arkansas against Ole Miss in Fayetteville is a classic trap game for the Rebels. The line has stayed at around a touchdown in favor of Ole Miss, and FPI has their odds to win at over 72 percent. However, the Rebels are 1-8 in their last nine trips to Fayetteville, losing those eight games by an average of 20.3 points per game. Three of those last four Ole Miss teams that lost in Fayetteville were ranked in the Top 15.
Lastly, Georgia is favored by just 16.5 against Florida, and their odds are just slightly under 80 percent. Florida has lost 12 consecutive games as a double-digit underdog dating back to 2016. Overall, they are 3-22 straight up as double-digit underdogs since 1990, actually beating Georgia in that spot back in 2014. Georgia is also 15-1 in their last 16 games overall when coming off additional rest or a bye week.
