Matchups to Watch: LSU at Florida

By Hunt Palmer

Some of the SEC rivalries of the past got lost in the expansion of the conference. LSU and Florida did not. The Tigers and Gators have battled every season since 1971. They’ll do it again Saturday afternoon in The Swamp.

Bily Napier and Brian Kelly were hired days apart and now face challenging finishes to year three of their tenures in Gainesville and Baton Rouge.

Injuries are a huge storyline for the Gators, especially in both backfields. LSU is facing the bitter disappointment that has come in the last two games.

Prior to LSU’s season opener against USC, I wrote that the game would come down to USC’s ability to throw the ball and LSU’s ability to run it. I thought that played out. I haven’t been as confident in the key matchups to break down in a game since that one. Until now.

This game in The Swamp will ultimately come down to three things, and that holds true with DJ Lagway in shoulder pads or sweats.

Florida’s Offensive Line vs. LSU’s Front Seven

Lagway or not, Florida’s success on offense revolves around the running game. That running game has shown up over the last month. The Gators ran 43 times for 197 yards and five touchdowns against Kentucky in what was the team’s best offensive effort of the season. Last week at Texas, with a backup quarterback in the game, Florida still managed to run for 197 yards. Now, falling behind 35-0 is a pretty good way to create some garbage time rushing yards. But consider that Florida has only thrown for a total of 245 yards over the last two weeks. Defenses haven’t respected that at all, and Florida is still gaining yards.

Montrell Johnson hasn’t played in three weeks. He was injured at Tennessee and is reportedly questionable for this week. Even without Johnson, Jaden Baugh and Ja’Kobi Jackson have run tough. Jackson had 116 yards at Texas, and Baugh added 88.

Florida will feed whichever backs are healthy, and it’ll be LSU job to stop them. You might be saying, “they’ll just run the quarterback. That’s easy money against LSU.” Well, that hasn’t been part of the Florida offense.

Lagway’s highest rushing output this year was nine carries for 46 yards against Kentucky. He’s only got 114 rushing yards on the season. And he’s hurt. And he’s the future of the program. The freshman toting the rock 19 times on Saturday doesn’t seem likely. Aidan Warner isn’t Jalen Milroe or Marcel Reed.

All of that said, it would surprise me if Napier doesn’t install some sort of wildcat look to keep that numbers advantage Reed and Milroe pillaged. That’s where the LSU defense front must be significantly better.

LSU ranks 15^th in the SEC in rushing yards per game allowed in conference games. Five times LSU has allowed 50-plus yard rushes on the season. No other SEC team has allowed more than two.

Florida’s Austin Armstrong vs. LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier

Armstrong was a controversial pick for defensive coordinator in Gainesville. He had coordinated the Southern Miss defense in 2021 and 2022 when he was the youngest defensive coordinator in the country. Since arriving at Florida, the results have been mixed. His job on Saturday is to confuse Nussmeier who is seeing some ghosts right now. The majority of Nussmeier’s 11 interceptions have been a result of a poor read. Those have happened because of some zone coverages and a little bit of pressure. Texas A&M and Alabama blitzed heavily to speed Nussmeier up. He fired five interceptions in those games.

It feels unlikely that a Florida defense that ranks 15^th in the SEC in scoring and rushing defense, 13^th in passing defense, 10^th in sacks and 9th in red zone defense is just going to clamp down on LSU. Could it force three turnovers? Absolutely. The Gators have nine interceptions on the year. That’s fifth in the SEC.

This game should look like the Arkansas game for LSU’s offense if it stays on script. In Fayetteville, LSU ran the ball 37 times to 35 pass attempts. Nussmeier controlled the ball and the clock with short, efficient passes. If that passing number pushes 50 again like it has most other weeks, the opportunity grows for Florida to make a game-changing play.

LSU and Florida vs. Apathy

LSU’s at-large dreams died on Saturday night. The remote possibility for a backdoor SEC Championship Game appearance does exist, but that is out of LSU’s control. Can Kelly get his team fired up to play in a new reality? Based on the answers players gave on Tuesday night, the answer is yes. But that remains to be seen. In the age of the transfer portal, teams can start to rip at the first sign of real trouble. Lack of effort can get you beat in November.

Florida has responded as well as could be expected to early losses. The got wacked by A&M and then showed up ready to play in Starkville. After a gut-wrenching loss at Tennessee, Florida played its best game of the year against Kentucky. So, responding to a 49-17 rout at the hands of Texas isn’t too big a concern. However, if Lagway can’t play, the rest of the team understands how limited Warner is. Florida’s chances in an SEC game with the Yale transfer under center just aren’t very good. An early hole could be disastrous for moral. Plus, Gator Nation is unenthused by the direction of the program right now, and that probably means a lighter crowd at Ben Hill Griffin. I’ve seen The Swamp at its absolute best in 2006 and 2008. I’ve seen it sleepy in 2012. The difference is sizeable.

Effort and energy will be a big storyline Saturday afternoon in Gainesville.