By Chris Marler
We’re closing in on the Week 12 SEC slate. Let’s check in with our friends in Las Vegas to see what lines have moved since the start of the week.
There are eight games this weekend, but two of the eight are against FCS teams. So, only six of the eight games have a betting line set from the Sportsbooks out in the desert. Of those six, five saw some sort of movement throughout the week. The only one that didn’t was Auburn being a 24-point favorite against Louisiana-Monroe.
Here’s a look at all the lines and where they opened versus where they currently are.
Texas at Arkansas
Opening Line: Texas -13.5
Current Line: Texas -12.5
Louisiana Monroe at Auburn
Opening Line: Auburn -24
Current Line: Auburn -24
LSU at Florida
Opening Line: LSU -4.5
Current Line: LSU -3.5
Missouri at South Carolina
Opening Line: South Carolina -12.5
Current Line: South Carolina -14.5
Tennessee at Georgia
Opening Line: Georgia -9
Current Line: Georgia -9.5
New Mexico State at Texas A&M
Opening Line: Texas A&M -39.5
Current Line: Texas A&M -39
Biggest takeaways from the line movement? The South Carolina line makes sense considering that Brady Cook is once again doubtful to start for the Tigers. However, this feels like a weird buyer beware scenario. Let me explain why. South Carolina has been awesome over the last few weeks, winning three in a row and watching quarterback LaNorris Sellers score eight touchdowns with only one interception over his last four games. However, Missouri has won five straight in this series. If that’s not enough cause for concern, here’s a stat for everyone.
SEC road underdogs are 17-4-1 against the spread this season. That’s the best mark for road underdogs in the conference since 1990.
Elsewhere, the two lines that stink the most are LSU over Florida and Georgia over Tennessee. Let me explain.
LSU is a superior team to Florida. They have more talent, a better coach and have won six of the last seven against the Gators while covering in five of the last seven. Florida will be playing with a backup quarterback coming off a hamstring injury at the very best, and at the very worst, they’ll be playing with a freshman third string quarterback transfer from Yale. I understand they’ve had their struggles as of late, but LSU should roll in this one.
Finally, there’s the Georgia-Tennessee game. This line stinks too but for different reasons. This line opened at -9 in favor of Georgia. Throughout the week we have heard rumors and seen reports that Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava may not play due to concussion protocol.
Georgia is 2-7 against the spread this season, and they’re going up against a defense that may actually be better than their own. If that’s not a rarity then I don’t know what is. Kirby Smart has had Josh Heupel’s number over the last three seasons holding the Vols to just 13.3 points per game. Gaston Moore has hardly played, and it feels like the possibility of him starting on the road in Athens should have moved this line more than a half point. I mean he’s named after that jerk from Beauty and the Beast whose entire personality was sideburns and eating eggs by the dozen for crying out loud.
Stay away, but definitely take the under in that game.
