ESPN FPI Updated their analytics and projections to simulate the percentage odds to win for every SEC game in the Week 13 slate. We have a ton of action this weekend with ten games around the league. Six SEC teams are still mathematically alive for a chance at making the college football playoff.
Here’s a look at the odds to win each game from ESPN’s FPI predictor.
9 Ole Miss at Florida
FPI Prediction: Ole Miss 78.1%
Massachusetts at 10 Georgia
FPI Prediction: Georgia 99.0%
UTEP at 11 Tennessee
FPI Prediction: Tennessee 99.0%
Kentucky at 3 Texas
FPI Prediction: Texas 94.7%
Wofford at 18 South Carolina
FPI Prediction: South Carolina 99.0%
Louisiana Tech at Arkansas
FPI Prediction: Arkansas 93.7%
23 Missouri at Mississippi State
FPI Prediction: Missouri 71.3%
15 Texas A&M at Auburn
FPI Prediction: Texas A&M 58.0%
Vanderbilt at LSU
FPI Prediction: LSU 70.8 %
7 Alabama at Oklahoma
FPI Prediction: Alabama 81.6%
What games and numbers that stand out most? The most glaring enigma on the board all season has been the Auburn Tigers, and this week is no different. Auburn is 4-6 and facing a Top 15 Texas A&M team that still has a path to Atlanta. The point spread is only 2.5-points favoring A&M, and it absolutely stinks. Ever since the Kick Six, I’ve always assumed that God was an Auburn fan. However, maybe Vegas is too? Auburn has been favored in seven of their 10 games this season. It’s worth noting though that they’re a home underdog this Saturday, and since 2018 they are 1-10 in that spot.
The two trendiest upset picks in the conference this weekend are in Baton Rouge and Gainesville. I’m not going to doubt Vanderbilt’s ability to win this game. After all, this is their seventh game this season as an underdog of seven or more points. They happen to be 6-0 against the spread in those games. They’re the most fun story in the conference this year, but beating LSU would be a historical upset. A loss to Vandy would be the fourth straight loss for LSU, and they haven’t lost four straight games against the spread and outright since 1990.
Finally, the other game with the most intrigue is Ole Miss at Florida. Billy Napier’s Florida team just won’t quit, and it’s been awesome to watch. However, this Ole Miss team is a different animal than most in the league, and they’re coming off a bye week where I’m sure they were able to refocus on the very real possibility of getting to the playoff if they win out. If that weren’t enough, Lane Kiffin has been at his best as a road favorite going 15-2 in that spot since 2019.
