By Hunt Palmer
I will be consistent with this all month long. It’s hard for me to work up some emotional energy for these bowl games. Watching Jontre Kirklin and 35 other guys in purple and gold try to play Kansas State scarred me. Then Purdue flat out failed to show up the next year. That broke the proverbial camel’s back for me. We already know that LSU is going to be without Will Campbell, Mason Taylor, CJ Daniels and Bradyn Swinson in this game. I’d be stunned if Kyren Lacy played. Depth at cornerback is almost gone. To me, the 2024 Tigers have finished their season.
All of that said, there will be one more game in 2024, the Texas Bowl against Dave Aranda and Baylor. And we’re going to cover it like we’ve covered every game before it. That begins with Statistically Speaking and a look at these Bears.
Aranda was brilliant in his time as the defensive coordinator at LSU. He parlayed that into the Baylor job, and things started quickly. He had the Bears in the Big 12 title game and Sugar Bowl in Year 2. For whatever reason, the success wasn’t sustained. Things were really dicey in Waco in early October. Baylor was 2-4 coming off a 22 point loss to Iowa State. Hot seat talk was prevalent, and it seemed like Aranda’s days were numbers. The team responded and won its final six gams in Big 12 play to finish 8-4 with a little momentum. The regular season finale was a drubbing of Kansas, 450-17, in Waco.
From an emotional perspective, it feels like the edge is strongly with Baylor. How about on the field? Let’s take a look at how Baylor stacked up in the Big 12.
(For perspective 1st is always the best, even if the number is lowest. 16th is always worst)
Baylor Offense
Scoring Offense: 2nd, 34.7 points per game
Total Offense: 3rd, 434 yards per game
Rushing Offense: 6th, 188.5 yards per game
Rushing Attempts: 5th, 38 attempts per game
Yards per Carry: 5th, 4.9 yards per carry
Runs for 10+ yards: 9th, 58
Passing Offense: 7th, 246 yards per game
Passing Attempts: 8th, 30 attempts per game
Completion Percentage: 7th, 61.6%
Interceptions: 4th, 9
Passes of 20+ yards: 4th, 50
Sacks Allowed: 7th, 18
Tackles for Loss Allowed: 1st, 43
Third Down Conversions: 4th, 44%
Red Zone Touchdowns Percentage: 6th, 67.5%
Plays: 8th, 68.3 plays per game
Yards per play: 4th, 6.36
Time of Possession: 15th, 27:49 per game
The most important statistic in offense is scoring. Baylor does that well. They stay ahead of the sticks by avoiding negative plays, and they’re balanced between the pass and the run, sixth and seventh in those categories while posting the No. 3 total offense.
It’s not a flashy Baylor offense. Sawyer Robinson threw 26 passing touchdowns to just seven interceptions. He will run a little bit. He has 82 yards on the ground against Colorado and 73 on Oklahoma State, but in the last three games he’s totaled -29 rushing yards. Bryson Washington has gone over 1000 yards on the season and run for over 100 yards in six games. In the final four games, Robinson averaged 156 yards per games and scored nine rushing touchdowns. He’ll be the focal point of LSU’s preparation.
Baylor Defense
Scoring Defense: 9th, 25.3 points per game
Total Defense: 10th, 382.8 yards per game
Yards per Play Allowed: 9th, 5.6 yards per play
Rushing Defense: 11th, 155.2 yards per game
Yards Per Carry Allowed: 7th, 4.01 yards per carry
Passing Defense: 11th, 227.6 yards per game
Opponents Completion Percentage: 7th, 59%
Opponents Third Down Conversions: 2nd, 34.9%
Sacks: 6th, 23
Tackles for Loss: 7th, 66
Opponent Plays of 20+: 11th, 61
Opponent Runs for 10+: 10th, 61
Opponent Passes of 20+: 12th, 45
Opponent Red Zone Touchdowns Percentage: 6th, 56.8%
Turnovers Forced: 6th,19
Penalties Per Game: 11th, 6.3 per game
I’ll be honest, I expect more than these numbers from an Aranda defense. Outside the Top 10 in a 16-team league in both rushing and passing defense? Not great. The third down number is the only real positive statistically. The bright side may be that Baylor cleaned things up in the last two games, holding Houston and Kansas to 27 total points. I sincerely doubt Aranda has forgotten how to call a defense. Feels like this may be a talent issue for the Bears.
