By Hunt Palmer
LSU’s stated goal all summer was to make the NCAA Tournament.
Matt McMahon would tell anyone who would listen, “we didn’t come to LSU to play in the NIT.” And that’s correct.
Though LSU’s basketball history is far more peaks and valleys than sustained success, there’s no reason for LSU not to be a perennial tournament team. Will Wade got that done, but what he left behind was a smoldering mess. McMahon has emerged from that, but a murderous SEC slate awaits.
LSU beat Kansas State in Manhattan, dominating that game for nearly all 40 minutes. LSU controlled the second half against Florida State in the Maravich Center. Kansas State is 6-5 with losses to Liberty, Drake and Wichita State. Florida State has four losses and has started ACC play 0-2.
Those teams are probably not going to the NCAA Tournament. The jury is still out on UCF.
But LSU has proven it can handle mid-to-lower tier Power 5 teams. They’ll need to handle a lot more than that to make the tournament.
I’ve got two reasons why they will make it and two reasons why they won’t.
Why They Will
- LSU is one of the 50 best teams in the country. The Tigers rank 87th in offensive efficiency and 32nd in defensive efficiency. Those are both strong numbers. Guards win games, and LSU has a trio in Jordan Sears, Cam Carter and Dji Bailey that has played in 332 college games and started 227. They have length. They have athleticism. They defend. And they’ve proven they can handle those teams like Florida State and Kansas State while not stubbing their collective toe on one of these bottom feeders in November and December. All of the base line ingredients are there.
- McMahon has proven himself to be a good gameday coach. LSU won nine SEC games last year with no point guard play and a lack of frontcourt talent. Jalen Cook was unavailable or ineffective much of the year. Daimion Collins got hurt. Will Baker isn’t making an All-NBA team any time soon, and Jalen Reed was a work in progress. Still, LSU got to .500 in the league. That’s on coaching.
Why They Won’t
- LSU can be awful on the defensive glass. UCF (21), Northwestern State (21) and Florida State (22) have all topped 20 offensive rebounds on the Tigers. LSU ranks No. 242 in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. The first shot defense is good, but when you get beat on the glass, you’re in trouble. That’s a quick way to give up points and get in foul trouble.
- The shooting has been spotty. LSU ranks No. 232 in three point percentage. Modern basketball requires the three point line. You don’t have to live and die by it, but you have to knock down shots. For LSU, the poor shooting is exacerbated by the fact that there isn’t a low post scoring threat to rely on. Collins is not a polished offensive player, and Chest is just a brute. Reed’s absence really hurts there. Bailey shot 32 percent from deep on limited attempts last year. He’s at 25 percent this year. Sears shot a blistering 43 percent from three last year. He’s at 36 percent. Reed’s 42 percent from SEC play last year is gone, and Collins and Chest don’t help there. Vyctorius Miller and Curtis Givens are seeing extended time, and they’re a combined 16-for-88 from deep. If LSU doesn’t get its three-point percentage up from 32 percent to 36 or 37 percent, the Tigers are going to be in trouble.
