By Ross Jackson
The New Orleans Saints are looking to close out the season with a strong performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, even though they’re not expected to do so on the scoreboard. The Saints overall look to be quite outmatched against the NFC South-leading Bucs and will be looking for victories wherever they can get them. But the numbers show that earning a sixth win on the season will be a steep hill to climb on Sunday.
Scoring Offense vs. Scoring Defense:
Saints Offense – No. 23 | Buccaneers Defense – No. 17
Buccaneers Offense – No. 4 | Saints Defense – No. 18
The Buccaneers have scored 40 or more points in two of their last three matchups. You would have to add up the total of the last four games in order to get the Saints above 40 points combined. Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield threw five touchdowns passes last week against the Carolina Panthers and tossed four against the Saints in their Week 6 bout. He also threw four interceptions in that game. But the Saints’ takeaway numbers have severely decreased since Week 9 of the season. Surprisingly, though, the Saints have allowed the fewest passing touchdowns (17) in the NFL so far this year.
Point Differential:
Saints – minus-52 (No. 21) | Buccaneers – plus-109 (No. 7)
No surprises here. Point differential and record are typically pretty aligned with only a few exceptions. But when one team is deep in the negative while another is soaring in the positive, the better team becomes clear quickly.
Passing Offense vs. Passing Defense (Yards):
Saints Offense – No. 24 | Buccaneers Defense – No. 29
Buccaneers Offense – No. 3 | Saints Defense – No. 27
As highlighted above, the Saints don’t allow a lot of passing touchdowns despite the yardage they have given up throughout the year. Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans is just 85 yards away from his 11th consecutive 1,000 yard receiving season, which would tie a record set in 1996 by NFL legend Jerry Rice. New Orleans may not be able to play spoiler on the scoreboard, but they could play spoiler for Evans.
This will be the first time that rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler faces a repeat NFL opponent. The Bucs passing offense ranks low in yards surrendered and has given up 26 passing touchdowns on the year as well. One of the best things the Saints could see in this game, even in a loss, is a productive day from their promising rookie passer. But he’ll have to manage another game of heavy pressure in order to get there.
Rushing Offense vs. Rushing Defense (Yards):
Saints Offense – No. 14 | Buccaneers Defense – No. 5
Buccaneers Offense – No. 4 | Saints Defense – No. 30
Here is where the game could get away from the Saints very, very quickly. Over the last two games combined, the Saints have lost time of possession 75:03 to 44:57. Both the Green Bay Packers and Las Vegas Raiders put together long drives with relative ease led by their run game, while the Saints struggled in both matchups to get any ground game going. With New Orleans’ inefficiencies on both sides of the run going up against Tampa’s top-five units, things could unfortunately follow the same trend in Week 18.
Turnover Differential:
Saints – minus-3 (T-No. 17) | Buccaneers – minus-4 (No. 18)
Neither team has taken the ball away at any particularly high rate. Similarly, both teams have given the ball away with the upper half of the league. Tampa has not generated a takeaway in their last two games and it’s been the last three for New Orleans. Both teams giveaways have ticked up since their late-season bye weeks. That could play a big role in this one.
Pressure Rate Allowed vs. Generated:
Saints Offense – No. 27 | Buccaneers Defense – No. 6
Buccaneers Offense – No. 3 | Saints Defense – No. 24
Another important metric where New Orleans is outmatched. The Buccaneers’ defense blitzes at the third-highest rate in the league and are in the top-10 when it comes to pressure generation as well. Meanwhile the Saints struggle on both sides to prevent and create pressure. Next Gen Stats has 40 NFL quarterbacks listed with at least 200 dropbacks in 2024. Rattler’s 42% pressure rate tops them all.
