By Hunt Palmer
When Ole Miss hired Chris Beard, it was a matter of time before the Rebels would be good on defense.
The Rebels are good on defense.
In the SEC opener, Georgia only mustered 51 points in Oxford, and Arkansas produced just 66 at Bud Walton Arena on Wednesday.
Ole Miss is now 13-2 on the season and a perfect 2-0 in league play. They’ll host the Tigers on Saturday afternoon as the No. 23 team in the country in both the AP Poll and the NET rankings.
LSU has flopped out of the gates, dropped a pair of contests to what appear to be middling SEC teams. Both were blown out in their other SEC bout. The Tigers are struggling g=to get off the decent starts due to poor ball security and trouble on the glass.
Ole Miss’ fan base is probably as energized by basketball as it has been since Marshall Henderson waked off the floor in 2013. LSU is trying to find any way to scratch a win.
The weather in Oxford is not great. Snow was on the ground as of Friday afternoon, and temps won’t top freezing until Saturday afternoon. Were it not for the snowfall, The Pavillion would likely be packed. Still, a quality crowd is expected.
Ole Miss is good on both sides of the ball. Their offensive efficiency ranks No. 41 in the country. Defense is ranked No. 20.
All five starters average between 14.3 and 8.0 points per game. They switch a ton of screens and pressure the ball all over the court.
On paper, this is a bad matchup for LSU. We’ll see if the Tigers can throw an early punch and hang around.
Rinse, Repeat
You’ve heard this one before. Twice. LSU needs to take care of the ball. Coincidentally, the Tigers are opening the season with the three best SEC teams in terms of takeaways. Missouri ranks No. 14 in the country, Ole Miss No. 16 and Vanderbilt No. 17. That has made Jordan Sears, Cam Carter and the rest of this group quite charitable in the first two games. It can’t happen again.
Why?
Because not only does Ole Miss steal the ball regularly, they never give it up. You thought Vanderbilt was good at avoiding turnovers? Ole Miss leads the nation. They only turn the ball over nine times per game. Only four times in 15 games have the Rebs turned it over double-digit times. At Arkansas, that number was just five.
If LSU gives the ball up 17-19 times and forces seven or eight, forget it.
My solution: Slow down.
LSU wants to play fast, and that works when you’re the superior team. Want to run Stetson and ULM up and down? Fine. That doesn’t hold true when Vanderbilt turns you over 11 times before halftime because you’re racing up court and trying a spin move in traffic.
Slow down. A game in the 60s is ok.
Guard Games
Carter and Sears have to shoulder a massive amount of the offensive load for LSU. When those two struggle, LSU struggles. While Ole Miss is more balanced than LSU, they do need Sean Padulla and Jaylen Murray to score.
Pedulla has been sensational since coming over from Virginia Tech. He’s averaging a team-high 14.3 points per game on 42 percent from three-point range. Murray joins him as a 42 percent three-point shooter.
Sears, Carter, Pedulla and Murray are all a little bit undersized and don’t have NBA futures, but they’re good college players.
For LSU to win the game on Saturday, Sears and Carter are going to have to be great. That means limiting turnovers and efficiently scoring.
Sears struggled with Anthony Robinson’s length on Tuesday. No such issues on Saturday. Pedulla is just 6-foot-1.
Start Strong
LSU is 161st in the country in first half scoring and 7th in second half scoring. That applies to cupcakes like Charleston Southern and Alabama State as well as conference games against Vanderbilt and Missouri. Oxford may be a buzzsaw Saturday. The Rebs can defend and shoot, and the crowd should be live. LSU’s first 20 minutes better be sharp, or you can turn out the lights.
If the Tigers can withstand the early barrage, maybe they can pull an upset.
