Baseball Mailbag: Breakout freshmen, starting rotation and more

By Hunt Palmer

Friday marks the official start of LSU baseball team practices. Jay Johnson will meet with the media, and then the team will hit the field (assuming the snow has thawed). The season is still three and a half weeks away, but it’s not too early to fire up the discussion.

I asked for your questions via X. Let’s talk some baseball.

What do you think the infield will be opening day?

— Wes Wheaton (@WheatonWheeler) January 20, 2025

Jones is a lock at first base. I also believe Daniel Dickinson is slated to be the second baseman which moves Steven Milam over to the left side. Jay Johnson has told multiple podcasts and reporters that he believes Milam is the best defensive infielder on the team. That, to me, indicates he’ll be the shortstop with Michael Braswell kicking over to third.

Is anyone other than Bear possible to lead the team in HR’s?

— Dbrosky (@Dbrosky4) January 20, 2025

If Jones is healthy and plays 60-plus games, he’s going to lead the team in homers. Luis Hernandez hit 23 home runs last season at Indiana State. Dickinson hit 18 at Utah Valley. Blaise Priester showed real power in the fall. But Jones hit 28 homers in the SEC last year. Betting on anyone else would be foolish.

Who is the starting catcher? Do they split based on handiness and DH?

— LAAstros (@LouisianaAstros) January 20, 2025

Defense will be the priority early on at catcher. This power pitching staff is not going to be easy to catch, so putting a bat-first profile back there to mishandle sliders won’t work. The best defensive catchers in the fall were Hernandez and Cade Arrambide, the freshman. I anticipate both of them starting at some point on opening weekend, but I think Hernandez is the slight leader to start on Opening Day.

Priester has work to do defensively, but you can’t rule him out. I like him as a strong designated hitter option early in the season.

Who locks down the 3 outfield spots in your opinion

— Josh (@jbabi336) January 20, 2025

Short answer: There won’t be a set outfield. At least not in February and March.

Long answer: Josh Pearson, Jake Brown and Ashton Larson return. Chris Stanfield tied for the Auburn lead for multi-hit games last year and finished the season at a respectable .276 while playing a solid centerfield. Derek Curiel enjoyed a monster fall. Ethan Frey is healthy for the first time in a year, and Dalton Beck hit .377 with 18 homers last year to win Southland Conference Newcomer of the Year.

That’s too much talent to sit more than half of them down.

Interestingly, five of those guys hit left-handed, and all of them run pretty well. No one will confuse Larson for a speedster, but he is a great contact hitter.

If LSU had to win a game today against a standard issue RHP, my guess is that Pearson, Curiel and Brown would play. But that’s purely a guess. Larson’s freshman campaign was excellent, and I know Johnson wants to see more of Frey.

I just think these at bats are going to be jumbled for the first month.

Milam wasn’t the highest rated freshman coming into last season. Didn’t start right away. But Coach Johnson couldn’t take him out of the line up.

What freshman has the best chance of being that this year?

— GEAUXT 🐐 SPORTS (@GeauxtSports) January 20, 2025

Probably Curiel if we’re talking about position players.

What role does Guidry play on this team? I’m a little surprised he didn’t transfer to pursue playing infield. Haven’t heard a ton about him this off-season. Obvious answer is back end of bullpen, but is there more in store for him? Has he developed a 3rd pitch?

— Cody Walters (@CoachCWalters) January 20, 2025

They are going to stretch Guidry out early on with six or seven other guys. He’ll have a chance to earn a starting role on the mound. He’s got his fastball holding in the low 90s, and he’s always had the hammer breaking ball. This offseason was spent really focusing on a changeup that I’m told is progressing. I just haven’t seen it. No one enters the fall with a leg up as an SEC starter, so Guidry has as good a chance as anyone. The fall back there is putting him right back into high leverage spots at the end of games. He’s proven he can handle that.

Based on how fall went, who do you think the top 5 high leverage arms (Starters/Back End Bull Pen) would be to start the year?

— Jake Krews (@JakeKrews1) January 20, 2025

When I read this question, I thought it would be really difficult to answer. Then I started writing in my notebook, and I feel like I have a reasonably confident list of five here. If LSU had to win a game on November 5 of last year when fall practice wrapped, I think Kade Anderson would have gotten the ball. And I think he’s the leader right now to start the opener, but three weeks can change things significantly. Chase Shores led LSU off on weekends in the fall and took the ball to open the double-header against Samford. He’s got to keep progressing with that slider. If that fully clicks, he could be the ace. The third name on this list should probably be first because Conner Ware was unhittable in the fall. The JUCO southpaw pounded the strike zone with a low 90s fastball and showed two plus offspeed pitches. No one hit him all fall long. He struck out five of six hitters against ULL. I think he’s positioned for that Griffin Herring role out of the bullpen. Guidry makes sense to put here since he may be a starter or a reliever. Either way, he’ll pitch in big spots. And my surprise name here to round out the list is freshman Casan Evans who I heard phenomenal things about during the fall. His fastball is in the high 90s, and he’s got a great changeup.

How concerned are you about the catching position which was our weakness last season?

— JoshPaul94 (@JoshPaul94) January 21, 2025

I am a little bit concerned about the defense. Hernandez didn’t play catcher last year at Indiana State, so it gives me pause that he’s the guy at LSU when the Sycamores had a better defensive option. Arrambide could be a star, though. So, I don’t have long term concerns.

William Schmidt is rated as high as any freshman arm we’ve had. Prospect wise, his company includes Gausman, Nola, Lange, Marceaux. Will he have that type of impact by the time we get to May?

— Kris Brauner (@KrisBrauner) January 20, 2025

Schmidt has every tool in the toolbox. He’s long and lanky. He throws in the mid-90s, and he spins the breaking ball as well as any freshman in the country. He needs to be finer with the command, and when that comes, he’ll be great. Thankfully, I don’t expect LSU to toss him out there to start on Friday or Saturday to begin the season. There are more veteran options that can take a little heat off of him. I’d like to see him start in a lower leverage role so he can get comfortable. But if you told me by late March that he was a starter or high-leverage bullpen arm, I’d certainly believe that.

How much bunting, stealing and hit and run do you expect this year? Manufacturing runs vs station to station (that worked great in 2023).

— Nook (@EJames9029) January 20, 2025

I expect LSU to steal and hit and run a little bit more this year than years past. But it’s still not going to be a huge piece of the offense. I think Dickinson, Milam, Pearson, Brown and Stanfield are legitimate base stealing threats. But I don’t see them moving much if Jones or Hernandez is at the plate. You don’t have Alex Milazzo in there to bunt a few times per weekend. And I don’t find Johnson to be too keen on giving away outs with most of these hitters.

Freshman most likely to start (pitcher and position player)

Transfer most likely to excel (pitcher and position player)

Sleeper (pitcher and position player)

Will Pearson start day 1? Will he be a mainstay?

— Austin Nichols (@sweetnasty791) January 21, 2025

Freshmen: Evans and Curiel

Transfers: Ware and Hernandez

Sleepers: Mikey Ryan as an infielder and Zac Cowan as an innings eater on the mound