By Chris Marler
We are back, and we are way too confident. We went 4-1 in our rivalry week picks which means we are 14-7 over the last two weeks of the season and making some money heading into the postseason. The 4-1 record was the best week of the season for Big Picks Energy. We have nine conference championship games to get to, so let’s finish the season strong before we get spend way too much Christmas money betting on bowl games!
Oregon ML – Lock of the Week
James Franklin is 1-14 in his last 15 games against Top 5 teams. His lone win came in 2016 at Ohio State when Penn State needed 17 fourth quarter points including a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown with less than five minutes left to get that win.
Oregon hasn’t necessarily played the toughest schedule, and Lanning’s albeit short track record, albeit short, isn’t great in big games. But a 15-game sample size that lopsided makes it impossible to take the Nittany Lions.
Clemson +3.5
I like Clemson outright in this game as well, but take the points to be safe. Clemson has won seven of the last nine ACC Championship games by an average of 25.7 ppg. I hope SMU wins because I don’t want to see two ACC teams in the College Football Playoff. However, I don’t trust a team whose strength of schedule is No. 75 overall after 12 games.
By the way the winner of this game will secure the first win against a current ranked opponent for either team all season. Unreal.
Arch Manning anytime TD
I go back and forth on who I think will win the SEC Championship this weekend. One thing I feel certain on is that Arch Manning will have an expanded role in the game no matter what. Arch Manning is not Tim Tebow. Still, Quinn Ewers’s ankle is still gimpy. Texas may have a backup left tackle in the gane, and Ewers was underwhelming against Georgia in their first game. I fully expect Manning to be a factor similar to how Florida used Tebow at times in their 2006 season.
Look for Sark to take a page out of Georgia Tech and even Alabama’s playbook in their games against Georgia where a running quarterback had a field day against this very aggressive Georgia defense.
Two smaller plays to consider
Arizona St ML
Matt Campbell and Iowa State are 1-12 in their last 13 games against Top 15 opponents. Arizona State finished the regular season 10-2 against the spread which was the best ATS record in the country this season.
The Cyclones finished the season 4-2 in their last six games with three of those being one score games and had only two wins in conference play with teams over .500. Take the Sun Devils.
Boise State ML
Boise State losing this game to 10-2 UNLV is a very popular and trendy upset pick. However, here’s what I keep coming back to. Yes, it is difficult to beat a team twice in a season, and I personally am a huge fan of Barry Odom and think he’ll have a good game plan to stop Ashton Jeanty. Keep in mind the Rebels held the Heisman hopeful to his lowest rushing total against an FBS opponent all season.
I say all that to say, Boise State is a good football team and already beat UNLV once on the road. This game is being played in Boise, not in the comfort of a dome in front of UNLV’s home fans. I like the Broncos to get the win and go 2-0 against UNLV this season while punching their ticket to the playoff.
