By Chris Marler
After taking some downtime during bowl season, Big Picks Energy is back! Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the triumphant return.
Following a pedestrian first two months of the regular season, where we hovered around .500 on picks, we finished strong—very strong, to be honest. Over the last two weeks, including Rivalry Week and Championship Week, we went 8-2 in picks. The only misses? Ohio State covering against Michigan and a bold Arch Manning anytime touchdown bet in the SEC Championship Game.
Tonight, we find out who will face Notre Dame in the national championship game, as Texas and Ohio State square off in a snowy Dallas Cotton Bowl.
Ohio State 1st Half ML – Lock of the Week
I mentioned that we hovered around .500 for the first two months of the season. During that “autumn of averageness,” the one bright spot was going 8-2 in Locks of the Week to start the season. I feel more confident in this pick than any of those.
Ohio State has trailed at halftime only once all season—and that was by a single point, 22-21, at Oregon in October. The Buckeyes have outscored opponents by an average of 12.7 points per game in the first half and have allowed more than 10 points in the first 30 minutes just once all year.
Take the Buckeyes to lead at halftime and hammer it. Absolute lock.
Ohio State to Score First (-160)
I like both of these offenses in general, but I love both being on script.
However, I trust Ohio State a little more than Texas because of its defense. The Buckeyes have scored first in eight of their last 11 games and have outscored their last three opponents 38-0 in the first quarter.
Ohio State hasn’t allowed a first-quarter point in five of its last six games and in eight of its 11 games against Power Four opponents this season.
Carnell Tate Over 32.5 Receiving Yards
Tate surpassed 32.5 receiving yards in nine of the 12 games he played this season. It’s worth noting that he recorded just one reception in each of his last two games for a total of 28 yards, but he has consistently hit the over in most of Ohio State’s games this year. More importantly, two of his best three games this season came when Jeremiah Smith had his two worst performances (against Indiana and Michigan).
I don’t expect Texas to completely shut down Jeremiah Smith, who is arguably the best player in the country. However, the Longhorns boast a strong secondary, including the Jim Thorpe Award winner. At the very least, Tate should have some opportunities to make plays.
Best of the Rest…
Texas Under 24.5 Total Points
Ohio State led the nation in scoring defense, total defense, and passing defense. The Buckeyes also ranked in the top five in rushing defense. While Jeremiah Smith and the offensive talent acquired through the portal get most of the attention, Ohio State’s defense has been the best in the country all season. They allowed more than 17 points only twice, both times to Oregon—one of which included a garbage-time touchdown.
Ohio State Alternate Line -3 or Ohio State ML
I don’t care about being up a ton of units; I care about being up, in general. You can take the moneyline (ML) if you prefer, but I feel good about Ohio State at -3, especially given how they’ve looked in their first two postseason games and the fact that Texas entered the postseason without a win over a ranked opponent on its résumé.
One Longshot – Ryan Wingo Over 21.5 Receiving Yards
Wingo is an explosive athlete who has exceeded this total in three of his last four games. He won’t need a high volume of targets to reach it—most likely just one reception or two at most. It’s worth putting a small unit on it or adding it to a parlay.
