By Chris Marler
Following the last two weekends full of primetime, marquee matchups, it seems that nobody is talking about how good of a slate we have in front of us this weekend.
It also feels like not enough people are talking about the value that several of these games have. We have multiple name brand teams and programs that I think Vegas isn’t giving enough love to, and we are going to take full advantage.
Ole Miss -20 vs Oklahoma *LOCK OF THE WEEK*
Listen, my picks have been very average at times this season, but one thing that hasn’t been average is the “Lock of the Week”. The Big Picks Energy picks are barely over 50% on the season. However, the lock of the week is 7-1.
Ole Miss is 8-4 in the regular season under Kiffin coming off a loss. Two of those losses were in his very first year in Oxford back in 2020. We talk about Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin’s offense all the time when we talk about the Rebels. However, the biggest mismatch in this game by far is Oklahoma’s offensive line against Ole Miss’ defensive line and front seven. The rebels are third in the SEC in sacks this season with 24, and Oklahoma is coming off a game where they allowed nine sacks to nine different players and 15 total in their last two games alone.
The Line is Ole Miss -20. Do you think Ole Miss can score 21 points? Good, because I don’t think Oklahoma is going to score at all.
Ole Miss -10 & Over 16.5 Total Points in the first half
Ole Miss still has one of the best first half offenses in the country. They also have a Top 5 first half scoring defense that is allowing only seven points per game. Remember, Oklahoma is breaking in a new play caller and offensive coordinator after firing Seth Littrell. Jackson Arnold is also the starter at quarterback again after being benched in the first half against Tennessee.
This is an Oklahoma offense that currently ranks 107th or worse in the country in scoring, yards, rushing yards, passing yards, yards per carry, yards per pass attempt and yards per play.
Auburn +3.5
The line is currently at 2.5, but buy it up to 3 or 3.5 if you’re scared (like me). Auburn is a statistical anomaly this season. They are one of seven teams in the country averaging 6.5 yards per play on offense and less than 5.0 yards per play on defense.
Please read that again. One of only seven teams to do that in the entire country.
Auburn is 2-5. And, those other six teams are a combined 36-4.
Since 2022, Auburn is just 3-9 in road games with seven of those nine losses coming by double digits. But, all three wins have come against inferior competition and teams with losing records. Kentucky is both of those things. I like Auburn to win outright, but play it safe with the points if you want.
Michigan ML
Michigan is not a good football team, and they have one of the worst offenses in the country. But, so does Michigan State. The Spartans are just 3-11 away from home over the last two and a half years. This game is being played in Ann Arbor, and, against my better judgment, I think the Wolverines will play with enough pride to beat their in-state rival and little brother. Take the maize and blue.
Alabama -9.5 first half vs Missouri
I know, I know. You’d have to be crazy to buy into this Alabama team right now. So, let me be clear when I say I’m not buying into Alabama being a playoff contender or to finish the season undefeated from here on out. I am a believer that they will put it together this weekend against a very mediocre Missouri team who will be without their starting quarterback and running back on the road in Tuscaloosa.
Against Power Four teams this year, Missouri is 3-1. However, all three wins were at home and by less than six points. Their lone loss was on the road against ranked Texas A&M team, and it was by 31.
We have seen what this Alabama team can look like at times this season. And, to be fair, both losses that they’ve had this year have come on the road. Alabama looked really bad at times a week ago against Tennessee, and they looked really bad at times the week before against South Carolina. But, those are two of the best defenses in the SEC. Missouri is not that. Alabama will get things right again before heading into the bye week.
LSU +2.5
LSU has lost their last three trips to College Station by an average better than ten points. That includes an absolutely inexplicable 15-point loss in 2022 that I still can’t wrap my head around. However, I am a big believer in LSU (this week), and I think they are a matchup problem for Texas A&M.
LSU is one of the few teams in the country that feels like they are somehow getting healthier, or at least have the potential to, as the season goes on. They lost Harold Perkins and the defense somehow got better. They have been better each week and have shown they can slow down much better offenses than Texas A&M’s.
A few weeks ago, a large part of the country seemed to get back on the Aggie hype train after they beat a bad Missouri team with an inflated Top 10 ranking. Here’s the thing, we’ve seen what Conner Weigman can be when the lights shine brightest. We’ve even seen it this season against Notre Dame. He was great against Missouri. But, this isn’t Missouri. And a quarterback with only three touchdowns in four starts to go along with four interceptions isn’t going to cut it against LSU.
