By Chris Marler
We are going to do something this week that is unprecedented with my ADHD, chronic overthinking, Enneagram 6 brain – we are going to keep it simple, stupid. Five picks. Five great spots. Five statistically, and historically, backed plays that are going to win us some money. This is the week we go undefeated, so strap in!
Georgia ML -130
Georgia is 48-0 in the last four years against teams not named Alabama. Lane Kiffin is 1-5 in regular season games against top ten teams as the head coach at Ole Miss. That one win was against No. 7 Kentucky back in 2022 who finished the season unranked at just 7-6 overall.
This line is way too low, and it’s not like playing in Oxford is some massive home field advantage. Even last year when these two met, it was 14-14 early on, and the game ended in a 52-17 win for Georgia. The Bulldogs will not be scared of the environment, nor the moment. I like Georgia by double-digits.
South Carolina ML -180
The line opened at South Carolina minus-2.5 and has been bet up to minus-4 as of Thursday afternoon. Here’s the thing about this game. Several things can be true at the same time. For instance, Vanderbilt is 6-0 against the spread this season in games they are an underdog with five outright wins. That’s really impressive, and they’ve had a tremendous season.
However, I think the emotional wave the Commodores have been riding finally comes to an end this weekend. They’re already bowl eligible. They’ve had multiple big wins already, and they have been playing with house money since the Alabama game. South Carolina needs this win to keep their program, and fanbase, invested and trending in the right direction. As good as Vanderbilt is, a loss to the Commodores would be inexcusable for Shane Beamer, especially after winning 15-straight, and especially after last week’s win against a top ten Texas A&M team.
Texas -20.5
Florida’s rivals got some great news early Thursday as the Gators athletic director announced that head coach Billy Napier would be returning for the 2025 season. All jokes aside, I think that’s a great move, and I think he deserves to keep his job considering the circumstances of the situation he walked into.
All that being said, the Gators are potentially down to their third string quarterback who is a transfer from Yale. They’re going up against arguably the best defense in the SEC, if not the country, and the Longhorns also had an extra week of rest. Texas will look to get right against a Florida team that, while being very gutsy this season, will be overmatched athletically.
LSU +3.5 & Caden Durham Prop Bets
As I’m writing this LSU is a three-point underdog despite being a 1.5-point favorite when the line opened last week. LSU is coming off a bad loss to Texas A&M, and Alabama is coming off their most complete win of the season against hapless Missouri with a backup quarterback.
Both teams are coming off a bye week. However, only one of the head coaches is 16-2 overall after a bye week, and that is Brian Kelly. LSU hasn’t been favored at home against Alabama since 2006, so this isn’t a new spot for them. But, this is a new era for both programs and I like the Tigers.
Also, as of today, there are no prop bets for Caden Durham’s rushing yards, but whatever it is, take the over. Or, get Durham as an anytime touchdown scorer at minus-135. I know LSU loves to throw the football, and in the second half against Texas A&M they ran the ball 12 times for zero yards. However, Alabama’s rush defense is ranked 14th in the SEC, and Durham is a damn good back.
