By Chris Marler
We did it. I said we just needed to make halftime adjustments and lo and behold we did and had our best week of the year last weekend. Big Picks Energy went 6-3 last week including an incredible 4-1 in our best bets for LSU-Ole Miss.
Now we look to stay hot as we kick off the second half of the season with some huge games and great spots to make some money.
LSU ML vs Arkansas
Call it a trap game, a hangover game, a potential upset, etc. I don’t care what you call it, I will fall for this “trap” every time that Vegas lays it out for me. LSU has won seven of the last eight in this rivalry. Yes, the game has been decided by three points or less in the last four straight between these two. And yes, Sam Pittman and Arkansas are 4-1 against the spread under Pittman coming off a bye week. I don’t care. LSU is a different team than years past and they are only just now hitting stride.
Clemson -6.5 1st Quarter
System play! It didn’t work a week ago, but it will this week. Clemson -6.5 first quarter against Virginia. The Cavaliers aren’t a bad football team, but Clemson leads the country in first quarter scoring at 15.0 ppg. What I love even more than the numbers is that they’re at home as well. Take Clemson in the first and, if you’re feeling frisky, take them to cover -10 in the first half as well.
Side note, if you are feeling frisky, don’t say that out loud. It’s a weird word, and you’ll sound like a creep.
Tennessee to Score 1st
Tennessee and Alabama feel like two evenly matched teams for the first time in a long time. I’m not a huge believer in either team and the more they play, the less I believe in either of them. That being said, the Vols are at home and, as I’ve said in this weekly article repeatedly this season, they are a wagon early on in games. They score early, often, and usually they score first. They should be up for this game, and I expect them to be great on script in front of the home crowd.
Remember the last time Alabama went up to Knoxville, Tennessee jumped out to a 21-7 lead in the first quarter and led 28-10 in the first half.
Purdue Under .5 Points in the 1st Quarter
I don’t mind Oregon -7 in the first quarter here either or the Ducks covering -16.5 in the first half as well. However, this feels like the best play of the three. The Ducks are traveling, and we have seen what Purdue has done to Big Ten title contenders in years past. But, this isn’t the same Purdue team as those were. Purdue is last in the country in first quarter points per game with a total of–wait for it–zero points all year.
That’s right. That’s not a typo. Purdue is one of two teams in the entire country that has scored zero points in the first quarter of a game this season against FBS opponents. Before last week against Illinois, they scored 44 points combined in their four previous games. Against the Illini, they managed to score 49 total points. But, even then, 46 of those 49 points came after halftime.
Game of the Week: Texas vs. Georgia
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Texas Score 1st
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Georgia +4.5
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Georgia 2H TT Over 13.5
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Carson Beck Over 1.5 TDs
Texas to score first feels like a gift at -170 odds. I fully expect Georgia to play well in this game, but nobody should expect them to play well early. They currently rank 99th in the FBS in first quarter scoring with just 3.4 ppg. Texas, on the other hand, is ranked 13th in the first quarter with an average of 9.3 ppg in the first 15 minutes.
That being said, Georgia is one of the best teams in the country in the second half, averaging 19.2 ppg which ranks 6th nationally. Texas does lead the country in second half scoring defense allowing just 2.7 ppg after halftime. However, Georgia has scored at least 14 points in the second half of every game this season except for Kentucky, including scoring 20 or more in three of those five as well.
Lastly, I like Carson Beck to go over 1.5 passing touchdowns as well. This isn’t indicative of anything about Texas’ defense. However, it is very clear that through the halfway point of the season, Georgia’s offensive identity is through the air. Don’t believe me? Last week they faced a Mississippi State defense that ranked dead last in the SEC in rushing defense allowing over 213 yards per game on the ground. Heading into the fourth quarter, Georgia had 42 pass attempts to just 16 rushing attempts.
Georgia Quarterbacks have thrown more than 40 attempts in a game just five times in the last eight seasons under Kirby Smart. Two of those five have come this season with Carson Beck under center.
