ESPN FPI Updated their analytics and projections to simulate the percentage odds to win for every SEC game in the Week 11 slate. There are six games this weekend around the SEC, with all six featuring conference matchups.
SEC fans, and college football fans in general, have had this weekend circled for a while now primarily because of the double-header featuring two matchups between top 16 teams. With playoff hopes still alive for Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama, and LSU, all four of these teams need a win.
LSU and Alabama is a de facto elimination game for the College Football Playoff. The biggest game on the slate not featuring a ranked team is in Nashville where South Carolina (5-3) and Vanderbilt (6-3) try to keep their incredible winning streak of upsets alive.
Here’s a look at the odds to win each game from ESPN’s FPI predictor.
Florida at 5 Texas
FPI Prediction: Texas 90.9%
3 Georgia at 16 Ole Miss
FPI Prediction: Ole Miss 54.1%
South Carolina at Vanderbilt
FPI Prediction: South Carolina 58.7%
Mississippi State at 7 Tennessee
FPI Prediction: Tennessee 94.0%
Oklahoma at 24 Missouri
FPI Prediction: Missouri 59..2%
11 Alabama at 15 LSU
FPI Prediction: Alabama 69.6%
Ole Miss being a projected winner over the No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs felt pretty shocking. Carson Beck hasn’t been playing his best football, but Georgia’s offense is somehow even better at scoring points when Beck does throw an interception, averaging nearly four points per game more in those situations. Georgia is also Georgia, and Lane Kiffin is Lane Kiffin. During his Ole Miss tenure, Kiffin is 1-5 vs Top Ten teams in the regular season. The one win was against a Kentucky team that was ranked No. 7 at the time they played, but finished the season 7-6 overall.
The other projection that stands out more than most is the Alabama-LSU number. Listen, I have been very quick to point out that Alabama has been incredible in Death Valley all-time, losing only six games in Baton Rouge since 1957 and winning 23. “The Tide don’t lose in Baton Rouge” is the saying around Tuscaloosa. But, Alabama has been a shell of itself the last few years, especially on the road. Let’s not forget they lost the last time they visited there in 2022. On top of all that, Brian Kelly is 13-0 in night games in Tiger Stadium as the head coach at LSU. I’m not saying Alabama will lose that game, but giving them a nearly 70% chance to beat LSU feels very cavalier to say the least.
