By Ross Jackson
NEW ORLEANS — The New Orleans Saints are returning from their bye week with their Sunday afternoon showdown with the Los Angeles Rams. New Orleans is riding high off of a two-game winning streak since some major changes were made by the team over recent weeks. Interim head coach Darren Rizzi has led the charge and has the opportunity to move a step closer to history with a Week 13 win.
Here are five things to know before kickoff.
1. With another win, Rizzi remains in elite franchise company
With the team’s 35-14 win over the Cleveland Browns in Week 11, Rizzi became only the second coach in Saints history to start his coaching career 2-0. With a win against the Rams, he will then become the second coach in the team’s history to start 3-0 with the hapless New York Giants on the way. That means that Rizzi could then become the team’s first ever coach to start his tenure 4-0. But the win against the Rams must come first.
2. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has been one of the league’s best since his weapons returned from injury.
Per Next Gen Stats, since Rams receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp were both back and healthy (since Week 8), Stafford has thrown for the most passing yards and has tied for the second-most passing touchdowns. The Rams offense has been up and down, but their air attack is still one of the most effective in the NFL. Working out of their tight formations, receivers are given a lot of space to work with both inside and out. Los Angeles and its weapons have done a great job maximizing their unique approach and the production shows.
3. The Saints are at a major statistical disadvantage in the trenches
In this week’s “Statistically Speaking” story, we highlighted the comparisons between the Saints and Rams based on major statistics and analytics. In doing so, it became clear New Orleans is at a major disadvantage at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, at least when the entire season is taken into account.
While New Orleans has generated pressure at one of the league’s lowest rates (No. 27), the Rams rank No. 11 in protecting against pressure. Meanwhile, the Saints rank No. 19 against pressure and Los Angeles is No. 1 in pressure generated. Not a great look for the Saints.
However, New Orleans has improved in both areas of late. The defensive coaching staff has changed its approach to the pass rush, simplifying the attack plan. Meanwhile rookie starting tackle Taliese Fuaga has allowed the lowest pressure rate (7.4%) among all rookie tackles in the league. The matchup between Fuaga and Rams edge rusher Jared Verse will be a pivotal one.
4. Running back Alvin Kamara and do-it-all tight end Taysom Hill may be the Saints’ most important players in this game
The Rams rank No. 28 against the run allowing over 151 rushing yards per game on the road. That’s a great matchup for Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. The play caller’s approach will always be to set up the run game first and build the rest of the attack off of it. Kamara and Hill have been fantastic in recent weeks, with Hill picking up 138 rushing yards against the Browns in Week 11.
On top of that, the Rams specifically have struggled against rushes outside of the tackles. Going into Week 13, Next Gen Stats ranked the Rams No. 29 against the outsize run allowed 88 rushing yards per game in that area. Meanwhile, the Saints run to the outside at the NFL’s highest rate, 70.2% of the time. That lines up the potential for a big game for Kamara especially.
Kamara could also have a big day in the passing game as well. The Rams have surrendered the 25th-most receiving yards per passing play to running backs, per Pro Football Focus.
5. The contest will be a chess match, and motion is the king
Between the Saints and Rams, a lot of offensive innovation should be on display. Kubiak has revitalized offense in New Orleans, while Rams head coach Sean McVay continues to pioneer new heights. For both play callers, motion will be a big part of the game plan. But the matchup between the Rams offense, who uses motion at the league’s highest rate against the Saints’ defense will be the most intriguing battle.
The New Orleans defense has surrendered some big, explosive plays in recent weeks. However, their ability to limit scoring from teams that use a lot of motion has been an underrated and impressive part of their identity. Per Next Gen Stats, the Saints defense has allowed just five passing touchdowns to seven interceptions while defending plays with motion.
Lagniappe: Saints quarterback Derek Carr has never won against the Rams
It’s true! In four meetings against Los Angeles, Carr is 0-4. He has thrown just three touchdowns in those games compared to eight interceptions. His three passing scores all came in last year’s game in Los Angeles. So perhaps the tide has already begun to turn for Carr against the Rams. A much better performance than his previous three meetings took place last year, now he has a chance to finally notch a win against the time this season.
