By Hunt Palmer
Often times over the last two decades LSU and Alabama clashed with what felt like armies of NFL-ready players. That may not be the case Saturday night. Neither defense has a player ranked in Mel Kiper’s last Big Board of 25 players. Just three players (not including the injured Harold Perkins) made a Top 10 list at each defensive position.
LSU and Alabama are good football teams. LSU owns a couple of really nice wins over Ole Miss and at South Carolina. Alabama toppled Georgia and clipped those same Gamecocks in Tuscaloosa.
But both teams have a pair of losses and are outside the Top 10 of the initial College Football Playoff poll.
The winner Saturday will very likely find its way into the Top 10. The loser can tune out rankings the rest of the way. They won’t matter.
Let’s take a dive into three matchups that could decide the outcome on Saturday night.
LSU’s Edge Rushers vs. Alabama’s Offensive Tackles
Alabama’s offensive line was an absolute mess last season. No team in the SEC allowed more sacks than the Crimson Tide. Kadyn Proctor looked like a turnstile as a true freshman. Snaps were a huge issue. It was a disaster. This year things have improved. Alabama has only allowed 2.1 sacks per game, seventh in the SEC. That number was 3.5 last year.
Procter has settled in and is playing like the five-star left tackle product he was coming out of the state of Iowa. Elijah Pritchchett has had his issues at right tackle. He was roasted on the sack that caused Jalen Milroe to fumble at Vanderbilt.
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There have been issues like that. And Milroe doesn’t handle pressure very well. He will make mistakes. Bradyn Swinson and Sai’vion Jones are the strengths of this LSU defense. The Tigers rank third in the SEC in sacks per game. Their ability to disrupt Jaxson Dart and help LSU get him to the ground six times was key to LSU winning that game.
However, there is a balance. The edge rushers have to rush and get home, but they can’t do that in compromising the pocket and allowing Milroe to extend plays or just take off. You also can’t wait for that to happen. If you let Milroe sit in the pocket unfettered, he can throw the deep ball to supremely talented wide receivers.
Jones, Swinson and Da’Shawn Womack will have to do a great job rushing and reading the play to keep Milroe in check.
LSU’s Linebackers vs. Alabama Quarterback Jalen Milroe
This one is obvious. The first part of the play is that edge rush. The second part is making sure Milroe doesn’t run wild. Much of that will be on the linebackers with some help from the safeties. When Milroe runs, Alabama wins.
He gashed LSU last year for 155 yards and four scores. He did much of the same in wins over Wisconsin and Georgia (30 carries for 192 yards and four touchdowns). Vanderbilt and Tennessee bottled him up and won the game.
Whit Weeks and Greg Penn both graded poorly by Pro Football Focus in the loss to Texas A&M when Marcel Reed turned the second half into endzone wind sprints.
If Milroe is allowed to do that, LSU is in serious trouble.
Expect defensive coordinator Blake Baker to spy Milroe at times with Weeks. Still, getting Milroe to the ground is easier said than done. He’s a 245lbs. load.
LSU’s DJ Chester and Paul Mubenga vs. Alabama’s Tim Smith and Tim Keenan III
Alabama’s “Tims” at defensive tackle combine for 640 lbs. and nine years of college. Put more simply, they’re big and old.
DJ Chester (6’6”, 322) and Paul Mubenga (6’5”, 315) are plenty big. They are not old. Chester has eight starts to his name, and Mubenga will be making his first at left guard for the injured Garrett Dellinger.
Keenan III is the more active of the two tackles. He’s got 4.5 tackles for loss and sack and a half. Smith is more of a space eater. If those two make life difficult on LSU’s young interior, the Tigers becomes one dimensional. They’ll have to throw too often as was the case in College Station. If LSU can get the push that many teams have on Alabama, Garrett Nussmeier will be able to go to work.
South Florida ran for 206 on Alabama. Vanderbilt ran for 166. Tennessee rolled up 214. It can be done. LSU’s going to have to try. Back to the initial point I made, this is not an Alabama defensive front loaded with sure-fire Pro Bowlers. It a good front, probably lesser than South Carolina or Texas A&M.
Unquestionably LSU will try to run the ball. Whether or not they can, could decide the outcome.
