Mapping out Saints unlikely playoff path

By Ross Jackson

It should be no mystery that the New Orleans Saints are about as out of playoff conversation as they can be without being mathematically eliminated. However, the “so you’re saying there’s a chance” crowd shouldn’t give up just yet. But just one loss will effectively end the team’s hopes of shocking the world and making it to the postseason.

NFL.com’s Next Gen Stats projection currently lists the Saints at just a four percent chance of extending their season before the Week 12 games are played. Meanwhile, the New York Times has the Saints’ odds hovering between just two percent and three percent. 

The Saints effectively have two main paths to get to the playoffs. The first is to win out. Ten wins won’t guarantee them a playoff spot with the Atlanta Falcons not only able to match, but also exceed that mark. In order for the Saints to reach 10 wins, they’ll have to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, limiting them to just a maximum of nine wins. The hope would then be that Atlanta chokes away the second half of the season and the Saints walk blissfully into a No. 4 NFC seed.

The other path is for the Falcons to fall apart while the Saints and Bucs keep pace with one another. If the Saints can win Week 18 at Tampa, they would split their head-to-head series. Even before then though, New Orleans would need some help from the Carolina Panthers for tie-breaker purposes. One win by Carolina over the Bucs, who were swept by Atlanta, would put the Saints in position to own the two-team tie-breaker at the top of the division should Atlanta fall off of a cliff.

There are other paths, but these two are the most immediate. One thing anyone could bet on right now is that New Orleans is going to fight for wins the rest of the way, regardless of the results.