By Chris Marler
Several oddsmakers have already released 2025 season win totals. That includes Sportsbook.Ag who released regular season win totals for 11 SEC teams on Wednesday.
There were the usual suspects at the top, but as the list went on there were some head scratchers to say the least. A year ago, all 16 teams were included in the win totals. There were eight teams projected at 8.5 wins or higher, and the other eight were projected at 7.5 or fewer.
Of the eight teams that Vegas projected at 8.5 or more, seven of them finished the season within half a game of their total. The only team that did not was LSU who was projected at 9.5 and finished the regular season with eight wins. However, of the eight teams projected at 7.5 wins or fewer, only one team came within .5 wins from their total–Arkansas.
Oddsmakers are good at their jobs. Still, recent history shows there can be value in the overs. Here are three SEC teams to hammer at going over their 2025 win totals.
- Auburn – 5.5 wins
Auburn has had four straight losing seasons dating back to 2021, and the Tigers haven’t recorded more than six wins in a season since 2019. So, historically the 5.5 win total seems fair. However, I would be absolutely shocked if Auburn isn’t able to win six or more games next year.
They’ve had back-to-back top ten recruiting classes and just secured the No. 4 ranked transfer portal class this offseason. Their schedule is arguably easier in 2025 than it was in 2024, as they replace California with Baylor in the non-conference and get Georgia and Alabama at home with both of those teams having to find new quarterbacks.
The talent is there. They should be good defensively. All the pieces are seemingly in place. The one thing not getting talked about enough with Auburn this year to next year? Nobody that beat Auburn last year really ran away from the Tigers. They were in every game in the fourth quarter, and only two of their seven losses were by more than 10 points. They were also 1-3 in one score games which is a statistical trend that rarely repeats itself from one year to the next.
- South Carolina – 6.5 wins
South Carolina was projected to win 5.5 games in 2024 and won nine. It was shocking to see the Gamecocks projected at only 6.5 going into next season. Sure, the schedule is difficult with Clemson in the non-conference and road games at LSU, Ole Miss and Texas A&M. However, even if they lost all of those games, they could still afford to lose one more and cover this total.
South Carolina currently has the 14th best odds of any team in the country to win next year’s national championship. They also have a quarterback who finished the last six games of the regular season with a 6-0 record, 19 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He currently has the seventh best odds to win the 2025 Heisman trophy.
So, top 15 odds to win a national championship and a quarterback with the seventh best odds to be the best player in the country, yet their win total is at 6.5? That math ain’t mathin’, as the kids say.
- LSU – 8.5 wins
LSU comes into this season replacing four out five starters off of what was the best offensive line in program history. They also lose their leading wide receiver in Kyren Lacy. After that, where are the concerns?
The schedule is difficult to an extent as they get road games at Alabama and Ole Miss as well as Clemson in the season opener. Outside of that, their toughest games are Florida and Texas A&M who they draw at home. Garrett Nussmeier returns at quarterback. He currently has the best Heisman Trophy odds of any player in the country.
Defensively there’s almost no way they fail to improve. They will get an upgrade in arguably every single level of the defense. Harold Perkins and Jacobian Guillory will both return from injury to help the defensive line and linebacker units. They also get five-star freshman DJ Pickett and a pair of Power 4 starters to help out in the secondary.
Is that not enough to convince you? How about the fact that they’ve signed three straight top eight recruiting classes. Losing the No. 1 overall player in last year’s class Bryce Underwood definitely stung at the time, but they still finished with a top ten class. It also freed up a lot of NIL funds that they used to sign the No. 1 ranked transfer portal class in the country that added 16 players to their roster.
If all of that still isn’t enough, let me remind you that Brian Kelly has consistently won nine games or more throughout his career, doing so 14 times in 21 years at the FBS level. That includes winning 10 or more in seven straight seasons prior to last year’s abysmal nine-win setback. Hopefully you’re sensing the sarcasm in that last sentence. LSU and Brian Kelly should be a force in 2025.
