By Matt Moscona
Two things can be true at the same time.
LSU wanted Bryce Underwood. Badly. The Tigers sunk three years worth of resources into recruiting the nation’s No. 1 overall player. They were so all-in that they don’t have a backup plan for the 2025 class. Losing Underwood’s commitment–because another school has a deeper roster of billionaire boosters who were willing to pay $12 million for a player yet to take a collegiate snap–sucks.
There is also a path for LSU back to championship relevance without Underwood.
Let’s start with a few realties about how LSU has won in its recent past. Joe Burrow was a transfer. Jayden Daniels was a transfer. Zach Mettenberger? Transfer. Danny Etling? Yep, a transfer. The last time LSU had a starting quarterback finish their eligibility in Baton Rouge after signing with the Tigers out of high school was Jordan Jefferson.
Success under center through the Transfer Portal isn’t unique to LSU. Seven of the top nine teams in the current College Football Playoff rankings are led by transfer quarterbacks. Five of the last six Heisman-winning quarterbacks have been transfers, including Burrow and Daniels.
While every program in America dreams of courting and landing a top high school signal caller, those wins haven’t necessarily equated to championships. The last time a top five quarterback in the On3 Composite won a national title was Trevor Lawrence who signed with Clemson in 2018. JJ McCarthy was a four-star. Stetson Bennett was a walk-on. Mac Jones was the No. 272 overall player in the country. They all won championships because they were good players who had elite rosters around them.
LSU played Lamar Jackson in the Citrus Bowl after the 2016 season. Jackson was sensational that season, winning the Heisman Trophy despite being on a three-loss team. The two-time NFL MVP was held to 153 yards passing and 33 rush yards on 26 carries. Read that last line again.
Jackson didn’t have an off day. He was playing against an NFL defense in college with Arden Key, Jamal Adams, Tre’Davious White, Kendell Beckwith, Duke Riley, Deion Jones, Davon Godchaux and Donte Jackson making his life miserable.
Brian Kelly and his staff now need to consider the immediate and long-term future for LSU football. The answer for 2025 is simple: Garrett Nussmeier. Amid a three-game losing streak, there have been questions about Nussmeier’s ceiling. Recall those were the same criticisms LSU fans lobbed at Burrow when he went the entire month of October in 2018 without a touchdown pass. Do we need to check Twitter receipts for how LSU fans felt when Daniels announced he was returning for 2023?
I’m not arguing that Nussmeier will win the Heisman Trophy in 2025, but it would be foolish to ignore the mountains of evidence of veteran quarterbacks improving year-to-year. Oklahoma nudged Dillon Gabriel out the door after he led them to a 10-win season because they wanted to turn the reigns over to former five-star Jackson Arnold. The Sooners are chugging toward a .500 season while Gabriel in leading his No. 1 Oregon team into the College Football Playoff.
Even if Underwood had honored his commitment to LSU, the Tigers still would have been better off in 2025 with Nussmeier under center.
The long-term prospects are cloudier for the Tigers. If Nussmeier returns in 2025, it’s hard to imagine that LSU’s next starter is currently on the roster. This is not meant to be a knock on Rickie Collins or Collin Hurley, but just a sensible observation of the times.
When Joe Burrow transferred to LSU, Justin McMillan and Lowell Narcisse bolted. After Brian Kelly signed Jayden Daniels, Myles Brennan retired from football. When Daniels and Nussmeier returned in 2023, Walker Howard transferred to Ole Miss. If Nussmeier returns for 2025, someone will leave. And in 2026, Brian Kelly would be foolish not to add an experienced quarterback out of the portal. When he does, someone else will jump town. It’s just how the game works now.
Underwood was a security blanket for the future–an impressive one. While LSU is left with uncertainty, the answers at quarterback are available.
For LSU, the real challenge is building the rest of the roster back to championship caliber.
The 2024 freshman class is oozing with promise. Caden Durham is the team’s leading rusher. Dominick McKinley was Pro Football Focus’s highest-rated defensive player against Vanderbilt. Trey’Dez Green is a problem in the red zone. Ahmad Breaux and Dashawn Spears are budding superstars.
Even without Underwood, the 2025 class is No. 6 in the composite rankings. The future is tantalizing, with six Louisiana prospects ranked in to Top 70 nationally for 2026. Oh, and the No. 1 quarterback for 2027, Elijah Haven, preps down the road at The Dunham School in Baton Rouge.
Keeping the 2025 class together will be difficult with poachers smelling blood in the water after Underwood’s defection and the Tigers three-game losing streak. However, the $1.5 million per year LSU had allocated for Underwood can now be added to the pot to lock down this class and be even more aggressive in the transfer portal to bolster the 2025 roster.
LSU’s return to the national elite might take patience. Or, it could be a season away. Whenever it happens, it won’t be with Bryce Underwood in the purple and gold. He may go on to a great career at Michigan, while LSU will take the path many others have to the CFP stage.
History has shown us, both things can be true.
