PALMER: Kelly’s tenure will be defined by wins, not money

By Hunt Palmer

LSU lost four games in 1995 and five in 2008.

I have no idea what Gerry DiNardo made in 1995. I have no idea what Les Miles made in 2008. I do know that DiNardo’s ‘Bring Back the Magic’ campaign was a rousing success, and 2008 was considered a disaster.

Neither had anything to do with return on investment in a coach.

College football is ruled by money. Conferences now stretch from sea to shining sea. Operations buildings feature waterfalls and putt-putt courses. Recruiting wars now openly come with financial terms. And coaches get paid a fortune.

Each program’s resources are finite, so the amount of money a coach makes is material. Often times, how much a coach makes when he’s fired means even more.

However, how much a coach makes doesn’t change expectation. That’s why I bristle when I hear about Brian Kelly’s current record relative to his contract.

This LSU football season qualifies as a disappointment whether the coach makes $100 million or $35 million. Four losses isn’t acceptable to anyone in or around the program. Kelly included.

My phone never rings when it’s time to pay a player or buy out a coordinator. I’ve never written a check with two commas. If one of those boosters who has wants to claim a 6-4 record in Year 3 is more disappointing for $10 million per year as opposed to $4 million, I can’t argue with that.

I do know that for the average fan the expectation at LSU is the expectation because of the success the program has enjoyed for better than two decades and not because the coach makes a lot of money.

Jay Johnson’s job is to make routine trips to Omaha and compete for national championships. Matt McMahon’s is to get into the NCAA tournament and see if he can’t find a second weekend birth here and there.

I can speak to those confidently, and I truly don’t know which coach makes more money. It doesn’t matter.

Kelly’s job at LSU is to get into the playoffs and compete for a national title. If he fails to do that, his time will be a disappointment. If he does win a title, his tenure will be a success. Either way, LSU will hire his successor. That coach’s contract may be for $97 million. It may be for $58 million.

His expectation will be the exact same as Kelly’s. Not one fan will parse through the contract to determine how many wins the coach needs to produce.

LSU’s last three weeks have been brutal. And that loss to a now 5-5 Southern Cal team looks bad. A massive amount of production from this 6-4 roster is likely to move on after the season. Things seem shaky in the short term.

Kelly’s coaching staff looks very good on paper, and the recruiting class set to ink in two and a half weeks shows immense promise. If you consider that the foundation of the program, it appears strong.

Either way, Kelly will be given every opportunity to turn things around. That’s where the contract does matter. The pockets currently paying Ed Orgeron, Matt House, LSU’s current roster and the commitments in addition to Kelly aren’t going to find more than $60 million to move on. Then you have to ante up to find the next coach. It’s not feasible.

Kelly’s track record suggests he’ll right the ship. It also suggested Year 3 would produce a jump, and that didn’t happen.

All of LSU’s preseason goals are out of reach in 2024, so for many fans the clock is already ticking toward 2025. All of those goals set in August of 2024 will be set once again in August of 2025. None of that will be impacted by the head coach’s $200,000 salary bump.

Kelly’s tenure at LSU will be judged by wins and losses alone, not dollars per win.