By Hunt Palmer
Everyone approaches the bye week differently.
For some, it’s time to get some things done around the house or go out for a meal. For some, it’s a round of golf or some time on the water. Maybe this is the weekend that couple is getting married because the football schedule is clear.
For some, it’s wall-to-wall football. No game to tailgate for or lock in on for four hours. Just a buffet of stress-free action from 11:00 am until…whenever.
If your bye week plans are to watch football with an eye on how everything is impacting LSU, here’s your guide.
In this inaugural season of the 12-team College Football Playoff, we’re all learning together.
How many team will each conference get in? How much does strength of schedule matter? Is it “best wins” or “worst losses”? Does losing the conference championship game hurt you? Do they just want the biggest brands on television?
We don’t know.
And since I’ve already told you I don’t know, these guesses aren’t subject to intense scrutiny five weeks from now when this all gets ironed out. Agreed? Ok.
First thing’s first. LSU has to win out to earn a birth. A 9-3 LSU team is not getting in. so, for the purposes of this discussion, LSU is going to beat Alabama, Florida, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma.
If they don’t, we’re debating bowl games for players to opt out of, and I don’t even know which bowls tie into the SEC anymore. Cheez-It? Gator? Is the Belk Bowl still around? I don’t have a clue.
This is a playoff column, and that’s what we’re discussing. Here’s who you, the Tiger fan, needs to be pulling for on Saturday.
GEORGIA vs. FLORIDA
We’re going to start in the Southeastern Conference, because that’s where LSU’s positioning starts. This one is easy. You pull for Florida. Georgia has a conference loss. This would give them two. Plus, a Florida win boosts your strength of schedule.
Now, a Florida win seems unlikely. If things start to trend Georgia’s way in the first half, you are free to pull for a 45-3 blowout. Billy Napier’s Gators head to Texas next week. Perhaps another blowout could ensue which would make The Swamp far more welcoming to LSU in three weeks.
Chomp, Chomp! (Unless it’s a blowout, then Hunker down, you hairy dawgs)
TEXAS A&M at SOUTH CAROLINA
This one is a little trickier. On one hand, an A&M loss paired with an Aggie loss to Texas in the finale gives you a real shot at the SEC Championship game as a one-loss team. Plus, that would eliminate A&M from the playoff discussion, because the Ags would have three losses. So, you’d pull for South Carolina.
On the other hand, if A&M were to win this game and run the table including a win over Texas, the Longhorns would be 10-2 boasting a best win of…at Vanderbilt? I think an LSU team at 10-2 with wins over Alabama and Ole Miss might look better.
I don’t know the Texas-Texas A&M result, so I have to play a hunch here. I do not believe Texas A&M is going to win the SEC by beating Texas and Georgia in consecutive weeks. Therefore, it’s in LSU’s best interest for the Aggies to have three losses. One of those has to come here.
Go Cocks!
OLE MISS AT ARKANSAS
I think Georgia is going to take care of Ole Miss next week in Oxford. And I think LSU needs that Ole Miss win to stand pretty tall. I know conventional wisdom would suggest to get rid of Ole Miss as a CFP hopeful, but I’m counting on that next week. An Ole Miss win by 10-14 points may not be the worst thing.
Hotty Toddy!
KENTUCKY AT TENNESSEE
The Volunteers are 6-1, 3-1 with Mississippi State, at Georgia, UTEP and at Vanderbilt left. Tennessee’s strength of schedule is No. 32 to LSU’s No. 8 right now. So, I think LSU would trump the Vols unless Tennessee went to Georgia and won. Still, getting Tennessee a third loss is the priority.
C-A-T-S, Cats, Cats, Cats.
Let’s venture outside the league to digest the matchups that matter. By the way, including this many teams of interest in November I awesome. Sorry, two-team and four-team playoff fans.
OHIO STATE AT PENN STATE
The Big 10 presents some problems for LSU from an at-large perspective. Right now, Oregon, Penn State and Indiana are without a loss. The likelihood of any of them getting to three is remote. Penn State has wins at USC and at Wisconsin. No one on the remaining schedule is ranked. Ohio State still plays Indiana and does not have a ranked win.
I realize trusting James Franklin to win big games is like trusting my almost three-year-old to keep his shirt clean while working on a plate of lasagna, but you have to do it. Penn State is going to make the playoff. Ohio State’s resume isn’t awesome with a loss here.
We Are…Penn State.
INDIANA AT MICHIGAN STATE
Indiana does not have a ranked win at this point. Their strength of schedule is No. 106. LSU’s is No. 8. But the Hoosiers have smoked everyone on the schedule. I’d just be more comfortable if they stubbed their toe outside of the trip to Ohio State which is in a month. Michigan State is no good, but Go Sparty!
PITTSBURGH AT SMU
You read that right. Pittsburgh at SMU matters, and Dorsett and Dickerson aren’t involved. Pitt is 7-0, 3-0, and SMU is 7-1, 4-0 with a loss to unbeaten BYU.
I think LSU fans need to tag SMU with that second loss. That takes the Mustangs out. Then it’s up to the rest of Pitt’s schedule to come up with two losses. That’s very possible. The Panthers still have Clemson coming to the banks of the Alleghany River and finish with road trips to respectable Louisville and Boston College teams.
Hail to Pitt!
BIG 12
I’m lumping the Big 12 together, because I believe this is a one-bid league. LSU fans are just looking for some losses from the top of the league. Iowa State is undefeated and hosting Texas Tech. Guns Up! Kansas State is 7-1 and at Houston. Go Coogs!
Simple enough? Sure. Feel free to reference this throughout Saturday afternoon and into the night if you’d like. Or grill a steak and watch the highlights of last time Alabama came to Baton Rouge.
Come next week, there will only be one game worth monitoring.
