PALMER: Tigers positioned well for SEC long haul
03/13/2025
By Hunt Palmer
College Baseball: Growth and Regionalization
College baseball is simultaneously growing and shrinking.
It sounds counterintuitive, but it’s simple. The game has never been more accessible or celebrated. All of the Regional, Super Regional, and College World Series games are televised. Crowds in Omaha are massive, and a national audience tunes in.
That’s growth from the days where teenage Hunt Palmer would listen to regional games on a Sony boombox nestled in the corner of a Shreveport bedroom, just wondering what Lane Mestepey or Jon Zeringue looked like.
The SEC’s Takeover
At the same time, the sport has gone from coastal to regional. All of the money is in the southeast. And all of the talent has migrated to the money. One-time powers like Cal State Fullerton, UC-Irvine, Long Beach State, and USC are afterthoughts. Oregon State is without a true conference, and Stanford is trying to navigate a half dozen cross country flights as a member of the ACC.
Just look at the last four College World Series finals:
2024: Texas A&M vs. Tennessee
2023: Florida vs. LSU
2022: Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss
2021: Vanderbilt vs. Mississippi State
Notice anything? Omaha has morphed into Hoover with better beef.
The Next 11 Weeks in the SEC
While a part of me laments the slow bleed out of west coast baseball and wishes the ACC could put up a bigger fight (yes, the ACC put four teams in the CWS last year and those four went 0-5 against the SEC), I do celebrate just how incredible the next 11 weeks are in this part of the country.
First round draft choices, future MLB all-stars, beautifully renovated ballparks. It’s a 30-game showcase of the very best in amateur baseball. As wonderful as is sounds, it’s every bit as brutal on the teams trying to navigate it.
The last three national champions have found that out, compiling a dreadful 28-62 record the next season.
Like in basketball this coming Sunday, the baseball selection committee knows how much of a grind the SEC represents. Oklahoma may get in the basketball tournament with a 6-12 record. Mississippi State is very safely in after finishing 8-10.
Last summer, LSU baseball went 13-17, and, thanks to a little help from a Hoover run, was closer to a host than out of the field. To be clear, it was close to neither.
SEC Dominance in Non-Conference Play
This year, the SEC has eviscerated non-conference play again. Currently, the league is 217-36 (.858%) with 73 wins of 10-plus runs. That means the SEC more often wins baseball games by 10 than loses them. And Missouri is responsible for eight of the 36 losses.
As the top-ranked Tigers get set to embark on the 10-week tour, Jay Johnson feels good about his team.
LSU’s Pre-SEC Strengths
LSU has cruised through pre-conference play with a steady three-man rotation, deep and talented bullpen, and a lineup that has shown top shelf versatility.
Kade Anderson looks like an ace. Anthony Eyanson looks like an innings eater. Chase Shores looks like a special Sunday talent.
What more could you want stuff-wise than Casan Evans at closer and Connor Benge as a set up man? Derek Curiel appears to be an all-American, and not just the freshman kind. Daniel Dickinson has mashed for a month. Tanner Reaves has won a job, and Ethan Frey has found his role.
All of those players have one thing in common. They’ve never done this in the SEC.
It’s safe to rest on assumptions about Steven Milam and Jared Jones. To a degree, the same can be said for Chris Stanfield. That trio is seasoned in college baseball’s hottest kitchen.
The rest have to prove it.
LSU’s SEC Schedule Advantage
As repayment for last season’s torture chamber of a start, the league office has looked kindly upon LSU with the schedule.
LSU opens with Missouri, clearly the weakest team in the league. Week 3 brings Mississippi State who has lost four games against its stiffer competition. Georgia and Florida are top-seven teams according to D1 Baseball. LSU misses them. And the toughest stretch of the schedule is three weeks between April 25 and May 10 when LSU plays Tennessee, at Texas A&M, and Arkansas. Two of those are at home, and the Aggies haven’t figured things out yet. LSU has six weeks to dial things up for that stretch of games.
The finishing weekend is three games at South Carolina, who doesn’t appear to be as talented as much of the league in Paul Mainieri’s first season.
The Magic SEC Win Number
I’ve generally worked off of 20 SEC wins being the benchmark for a Top 8 seed lock. I’ve slid that down to 19. Georgia nabbed one with 17 league wins last year. Three years ago, Arkansas won 18 and was sent to Chapel Hill, so every case is different.
However, in this climate, with the dominance the SEC displayed in the pre-conference, I’d feel good about getting a National Seed at 18 wins and great at 19.
LSU can make the math much easier with a great start to league play. The other piece is “don’t get swept.”
The SEC Reality Check
Last year’s disaster of a start paired with the quality of the play at the end of the season likely reinforced to the LSU fanbase that setbacks are coming. Even the juggernaut that was the 2023 team lost consecutive weekends to mediocre Auburn and Mississippi State teams.
Those are inevitable.
LSU still has to duel with arms like Liam Doyle of Tennessee and Kyson Witherspoon at Oklahoma and Ryan Prager at Texas A&M and bats like Justin Lebron of Alabama and Ethan Petry of South Carolina.
Every week provides immense challenges.
Missouri: The SEC Outlier
Except for one. Missouri simply does not.
These Tigers have failed to win weekends against Binghamton and Evanston. They were crushed by Alabama State a day after narrowly escaping Florida A&M.
Failing to win at least two games this weekend would be a step in the wrong direction. On the other hand, what an opportunity to open league play.
Either way, there will be 27 more to play once LSU and Missouri shake hands on Sunday afternoon.
Let’s play some ball, yall.
18-4 Tigers! See you Friday! pic.twitter.com/6pvBglje9f
— Jay Johnson (@LSUCoachJ) March 12, 2025
