Stat Comparision: Saints at Panthers

By Ross Jackson

Scoring Offense Vs. Scoring Defense:

Saints Offense – No. 16 | Panthers Defense – No. 32

New Orleans opened the season scoring 91 points in their first two games. Since then, they’ve tallied just 96 over the last six. A combination of injuries and defenses limiting the Saints’ run game has had a major impact on the team’s scoring potential. This week, they will face the NFL’s worst scoring defense in the Panthers, against whom New Orleans scored 47 against to open the season. The Saints will be looking to recapture that success in Week 9.

Panthers Offense – No. 29 | Saints Defense – No. 25

Scoring has been far from a strong suit of the Carolina Panthers who average just 1.8 offensive touchdowns per game this season. That includes 1.7 at home, the NFL’s third-lowest average. By the looks of it, their switch back to second-year passer Bryce Young won’t help them much in that category. Per Next Gen Stats, Young has the third-lowest career passing touchdown percentage (2.1%) of any quarterback with at least 600 passing attempts since 1950. The team’s scoring potential looks like it will come from its run game, which we’ll explore more of later.

Point Differential:

Saints Offense – -21 (No 16) | Panthers Offense – -147 (No. 32)

Point differential is a reliable indicator of success when it comes to complementary football. For New Orleans, their scoring defense may be ranked lowly, but their scoring potential on offense is at least middle of the road. That can’t be said about Carolina who are within the bottom three on both sides of the ball, which is why they are off to the worst start  in NFL history since 2013 when it comes to scoring deficit.

Passing Offense Vs. Passing Defense (Yards):

Saints Offense – No. 19 | Panthers Defense – No. 25

One may assume the Saints have fallen out of the top half of the NFL in passing yardage over the last three games while starting quarterback Derek Carr was out. Over the last three weeks, they have averaged just 215 passing yards per game. However, even with Carr in the lineup, things were slowing as defense’s successfully adjusted to the team’s attack and injuries mounted on the offensive line. From Weeks 3-5, New Orleans averaged just 179.7 passing yards per game. They will look to turn the tide this week against Carolina’s struggling defense.

Panthers Offense – No. 30 | Saints Defense – No. 28

New Orleans may allow a wealth of passing yards, but they certainly have shown a propensity for limiting passing touchdowns. The defense has surrendered seven touchdown receptions so far this season, good for No. 6 in the NFL. That, paired with the Panthers’ inefficiency through the air, should work in the Saints favor. Carolina also traded its leading receiver, wide receiver Diontae Johnson, to the Baltimore Ravens earlier in the week. That should further curb their ability to produce an aerial attack on Sunday.

Rushing Offense Vs. Rushing Defense (Yards):

Saints Offense – No. 21 | Panthers Defense – No.32

The Saints have been sinking in this category since they lost their starting center Erik McCoy in their Week 3 showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles. Philadelphia contained the Saints run game with a six-man front and a dominant interior performance. Since then, some teams have been able to replicate that success as the inside of the New Orleans offensive line has used four different centers, four left guards and a pair of right guards thanks to injury.

Taysom Hill’s absence altered the team’s run game. Starting running back Alvin Kamara and Hill give the Saints a one-two punch unique to the NFL. 

Panthers Offense – No. 25 | Saints Defense – No. 28

Both of these teams are trying desperately to improve in this avenue. Carolina may finally see the debut of their rookie running back Jonathan Brooks, though one would expect that he will be on a bit of a pitch count if this game is indeed his debut. He and Hubbard do present a challenge for the Saints run defense, which has struggled this season. One of these sides will have a “get-right” performance on Sunday.

Turnover Differential:

Saints – +2 (No. 11) | Panthers – -6 (No. 29)

Safety Tyrann Mathieu and the Saints defense had forced at least one turnover in each contest going into Week 7. Against the Chargers, however, they were not able to register a takeaway. When these two teams met in Week 1, the Panthers turned the ball over three times, two interceptions thrown by Young and a fumble forced and recovered by Mathieu. Carolina’s 14 giveaways rank third-most in the league. 

Pressure Rate Allowed Vs. Generated:

Saints Offense – No. 22 | Panthers Defense – No. 31

Whether under pressure or not, Carr has put together solid performances. Of course, as the protection in front of saw more and more attrition, things slowed down. But under the full sample size of the season, the veteran signal caller has been far more reliable under pressure than his rookie replacement over the last three weeks. Carr has completed just 50 percent of his passes under pressure, but also had an 85.9 passer rating and 11.6 percent big time throw percentage on such dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus. 

However, Carolina’s pass rush doesn’t present much of a threat. When Carr hasn’t been under pressure, he has delivered his passes in 2.41 seconds on average. Getting the ball out quickly and on time helps the offense find rhythm. That’s a key the Saints must attain this weekend. During their Week 1 meeting, the Panthers pressured Carr on just three of his dropbacks. 

Panthers Offense – No. 10 | Saints Defense – No. 27

As it turns out, this is where the Panthers have excelled all year long. They have let up just a 29.8 percent pressure rate, per Next Gen Stats. That is a Top 10 metric in the league. Meanwhile New Orleans has brought pressure at a bottom-six rate. Despite that, Young faced the most pressure of his three starts so far this year against the Saints in their season opener.