Statistically Speaking: A first look at Florida

By Hunt Palmer

Florida and LSU got smoked on Saturday. A battered and undermanned Florida team had no chance at Texas. LSU got flattened by Alabama. One of the SEC’s fiercest rivalries of 15 years ago lacks some bite this time around. Florida is staring a third straight losing season down the barrel, and LSU’s third loss packed a serious punch to the program’s momentum.

Napier will return for another season next year. That hasn’t inspired much confidence in the Florida faithful. And The Swamp can get sleepy when things aren’t humming. Don’t expect this one to feel like 2007 on Saturday.

Here’s a look at the Gators by the numbers.

(For perspective 1st is always the best, even if the number is lowest. 16th is always worst)

Florida Offense

Scoring Offense: 10^th 28.1 points per game

Total Offense: 12^th 383.3 yards per game

Rushing Offense: 10^th 164 yards per game

Rushing Attempts: 12^th 35 per game

Runs for 10+ yards: 12^th 43

Passing Offense: 10^th 232.3 yards per game

Passing Attempts: 11^th 26.7 attempts per game

Passes of 20+ yards: 6^th 34

Sacks Allowed: 2^nd 1.4 sacks per game

Tackles for Loss Allowed: 8^th 5.6 per game

Third Down Conversions: 14^th 37%

Red Zone Touchdowns Percentage: 7^th 66%

Plays: 16^th 62 plays per game

Yards per play: 8^th 6.2 yards per play

Time of Possession: 12^th 28:38

Admittedly, this is tough to truly handicap four days before the game. There are four different iterations of the Florida offense. It started as Graham Mertz’s team. He struggled a little bit early in the year and got banged up. So it became Mertz and DJ Lagway in a dual-QB system. Then Mertz went out for the year, and it was Lagway’s show. Now Lagway is hurt, so Adian Warner had to come off the bench. All of those different segments of the season looked wildly different.

Warner went the second half versus Georgia and all of the Texas game. That’s stink has totaled 24 drives: 11 punts, 3 TD, 2 FG, 1 missed FG, 1 kneel, 1 turnover on downs, 2 fumbles and 3 INTs. That’s getting points on five drives and turning it over on six. Warner completed just 12-of-25 throws with a pair of interceptions at Texas. He’s just not an SEC quarterback.

What struck me a little bit is that Florida runs the fewest plays in the SEC.

The rushing attack doesn’t look good by the numbers, but it has been much better the last month. Florida ran for 138 on a really tough Tennessee front, 197 and five touchdowns on Kentucky, 115 on Georgia and 197 on Texas without a threat at quarterback. That’s probably the key to this game.

Florida Defense

Scoring Defense: 15^th 27.6 points per game

Total Defense: 15^th 401 yards per game

Rushing Defense: 15^th 167.3 yards per game

Yards Per Carry Allowed: 14^th 4.2 yards per carry

Passing Defense: 13^th 234 yards per game

Opponents Completion Percentage: 9^th 61%

Opponents Third Down Conversions: 12^th 40%

Sacks: 10^th 2,2 sacks per game

Tackles for Loss: 13^th 5.3 per game

Opponent Plays of 20+: 16^th 53

Opponent Runs for 10+: 15^th 43

Opponent Passes of 20+: 16^th 42

Opponent Red Zone Touchdowns Percentage: 14^th 58%

Opponent Third down Conversions: 12^th 40%

Turnovers Forced: 8^th 13

Penalties Per Game: 1^st 5.4 per game

Big plays are obviously the story here. Those chunk play numbers are awful for this Gators unit. Now, they’ve been very, very banged up. Florida went into the Texas game without its top three corners. Still, that doesn’t excuse allowing that many rushes for over 10 yards.

Texas A&M ran for 310 in The Swamp. Mississippi State ran for 240. Texas ran for 210. Can LSU find any of that success? The Tigers managed to do it at Arkansas, and Caden Durham is getting healthier.

Even if not, Georgia and Texas had no issues throwing the ball, either. Georgia threw for 309, and Texas threw for 352.

There’s just not a ton to love about this Florida defense other than solid efforts against Kentucky and Tennessee. LSU’s offense has sputtered the last six quarters. It would be a good time for that group to wake up.