Statistically Speaking: LSU struggling on first downs

By Hunt Palmer

No singular issue cost LSU the game Saturday night at Texas A&M.

After comfortably dictating the pace and flow of the game for better than a half, LSU had that tide turned by Texas A&M in nearly every facet of the game.

The Aggies ran the ball with authority, completed both of their pass attempts, made plays on Garrett Nussmeier passes and turned up their own pass rush. More than 100,000 fans got behind their team, and all of it was more than LSU could handle.

From a big picture perspective, the turnovers and short field stand out, but digging a little further into the numbers illustrates a deeper concern for LSU.

The Tiger offense played from behind the chains all night.

Prior to the clock and deficit (trailing by 15 with 3:44 left) demanding LSU throw the ball exclusively, LSU ran 30 first down plays in Kyle Field. Of those 30, 20 went for two yards or less. Two thirds of the time, LSU was in 2^nd and 8 or worse. That often sounds like a symptom of a poor rushing attack, and that is the case with LSU.

LSU ran the ball on just eight of the 30 first downs, and only one of those runs went for more than three yards. Six of the eight went for two yards or less.

LSU averages 4.23 yards per carry, 11^th best in the SEC. The Tigers rank dead last in the league in rushing attempts per game at 27.3 and explosive runs (10+ yards) with just 27. That’s less than half of what Arkansas (60) has produced.

Rushing the ball infrequently AND ineffectively is the issue.

The passing game isn’t off this hook, either. Nussmeier’s completion percentage on Saturday (50%) and in SEC games altogether (54%) is often times not conducive to kick starting drives. He only connected on 9-of-21 first down throws. He was also sacked once.

On those 22 called first down passes, LSU was in 2^nd and 8 or worse 14 times. That’s 64 percent of the time.

As talented as Nussmeier and his offensive line are, starting a set of downs with low production plays will eventually catch up to you.

What’s wild is that LSU manages to make up for poor production on first down because the passing game bails them out. LSU leads the conference in third down conversion percentage at 49 percent. That ranking only dips to third when you only look at league games.

Offensive coordinator Joe Sloan did create success leaning heavily on the pass at Arkansas. LSU threw the ball on 10 of its first 11 first downs. Those resulted in seven completions and a pass interference call as LSU seized control of that game.

However, it’s against the defenses with higher level personnel where the issues will present themselves. That certainly played out on Saturday in College Station.

The Tiger offense is not broken. In league games only, LSU ranks fourth in the SEC in points per game, 30.5. The Tigers have faced scoring defenses ranked 1^st (Ole Miss), 4^th (Texas A&M), 5^th (South Carolina) and 6^th (Arkansas). That’s the toughest slate anyone in the league has seen.

Remaining on the schedule are Alabama (9^th), Florida (11^th), Vanderbilt (12^th) and Oklahoma (14^th).

LSU’s offense has generally done a good job of converting third downs and producing points. The Tigers have just done it the hard way.

If the College Football Playoff is the goal, then winning out is the only option. To do that, LSU desperately needs to way a way to stay ahead of the chains more often.