Statistically Speaking: What’s up with the LSU offense?

By Hunt Palmer

Jay Johnson talks about his long, sleepless nights drinking orange juice and staring into the sky.

He doesn’t take losses well.

More often than not, recently, LSU’s losses have felt more due to poor offense than anything else. Unquestionably, Johnson and his staff will be searching for answers over the final three weeks of play before NCAA Tournament action begins.

I slept pretty well last night considering the eight-week-old under my roof. But I still went searching for some numbers Wednesday morning to indicate the problem.

I found one trend particularly interesting.

HOME COOKING

More than left-handed starter vs. right-handed starter or this lineup vs. that lineup, I found a disparity in LSU’s offense at home vs. on the road.

I could make the case that LSU’s road opponents (Texas, Oklahoma, Auburn and Texas A&M) are better than the home opponents (Missouri, Mississippi State, Alabama and Tennessee), but I don’t find the disparity in the pitching staffs to be massive outside of Missouri.

Mississippi State has talented arms. Riley Quick at Alabama is going to be an early pick. Tennessee’s front-line starters are elite, and the Vols lead the SEC in ERA.

The numbers home and away for LSU offensively are pretty stark. LSU averages 3.9 runs per game on the road and 8 runs per game at home.

• 12 SEC road games: 4 or fewer runs 9 times; 7 or more runs 3 times
• 12 SEC home games: 4 or fewer runs 4 times; 7 or more runs 9 times

It feels like some of that has to do with the home run ball. LSU isn’t a team built on prodigious power. LSU ranks ninth in the SEC in total home runs this season. They do hit more at home, though.

In 12 SEC games at home, LSU has 23 home runs. In 12 games on the road, the Tigers have eight.

Yes, Texas is a big ballpark. It was freezing cold at Oklahoma. But Auburn is a fine park to hit in. LSU hit one home run in three games. Texas A&M’s staff has been susceptible to the longball. LSU hit two over the weekend.

The Tigers bashed seven home runs against Tennessee and Mississippi State at the Box.

I don’t have a great reason for the disparity, but it has translated to wins and losses, too.

LSU is 10-2 at home and 5-7 on the road in conference play.

The magic number for the season has been six runs. When the Tigers score six or more, they’re 31-1. When they score five or less, they’re 7-10.

INDIVIDUAL ISSUES

A lot has been made of Steven Milam’s scuffles. It is what it is. The Tiger shortstop is hitting .205 in league games. He’s not coming out of the lineup. First, he’s too good on defense to remove. Second, he’s a better hitter than that. He showed it last year.

Jake Brown is also searching a little bit. The mammoth three-run shot he hit against Tennessee is his only hit in his last 15 league at bats. He’s 7-for-30 (.233) over the last four SEC weekends.

Jared Jones has struck out in all but three SEC games. His strike out rate is not appreciably higher than it was last year. He struck out 76 times in 66 games last year. This season he’s got 51 strikeouts in 49 games. That said, his walk numbers aren’t where they need to be, specifically on the road. Jones has not walked in an SEC road game yet. He’s got 18 strikeouts and 0 walks on the road and 17 strikeouts and eight walks at home. I don’t have a great reason for that, but it’s a jarring stat.

Those three are returning players, and in Milam and Jones’s case are proven returning players. Brown only started six SEC games last year and hit .143 in those games, but that’s not a long enough stint to draw much from.

If you had told me the newcomers would have done this in 24 SEC games, I’d have taken every single one of them.

• Chris Stanfield: .333 avg, 13 2B (both lead team)
• Derek Curiel: .313 avg, on base in 21 of 24 games
• Daniel Dickinson: .294 avg, .450 on base %
• Luis Hernandez: .274 avg, .910 OPS

Those are very solid SEC numbers. The returning guys have underperformed last season including Michael Braswell whose SEC batting average is down 50 points.

On one hand, you’d rather count on a turnaround from guys who have done it. On the other, it is getting late for some sort of resurgence.

HUNT’S TAKE

LSU badly, badly needs to win four of the last six SEC games. If they can do that, they’ll very likely play postseason baseball at home where they’ve been a much better team.

I think Jones and Milam are going to be better in the season’s last 15-to-20 games than these 24 SEC games. Warmer weather, home games, big moments. I just trust that those guys are going to show up.

That said, the lack of pop was a question in January and has materialized a bit as the Tigers stand ninth in the SEC in home runs. Then you’ve got some stretches where LSU goes dark. The Tigers scored in just five of 27 innings at Auburn, three of the first 18 against Tennessee and four of 27 at Texas A&M.

Those are the kinds of stretches that end seasons.

The LSU pitching will be there to shoulder some of the load when it counts, but there’s no question the offense needs to be better.