By Ross Jackson
Successful young quarterback play is one of the keys to success around the NFL. A player at the helm that a franchise can build around for many years and a rookie contract in tow that allows it to build around the player are two key ingredients to competing year in and year out.
The New Orleans Saints invested their highest NFL Draft selection in more than fifty years to take former Louisville passer Tyler Shough in the second round this season.
Finding success with either him or second-year quarterback Spencer Rattler in the near future would be a major step in the right direction for New Orleans.
What success looks like for Shough in his first season requires the assumption that he wins the starting quarterback role, which with Rattler’s experience isn’t exactly a given. But for this exercise, we’ll play out the hypothetical. Success with either passer is a big win for the Saints.
Shough’s Success Starts Now
Before considering any stat lines or accolades for the rookie signal caller, it’s worth mentioning that success with a young passer is just as much about managing the game as it is about the production.
Head coach Kellen Moore spoke about this recently, pointing out his focus at the position beyond the physical attributes.
“I think a lot of it comes into the operation,” Moore said. “And the way they operate the offense, the way they communicate with everyone on the field. Again, the quarterback has no choice. It’s a leadership role, and there’s no real way around that. So, it’s really, really important to see those guys take ownership and go for it.”
A big part of the rookie showing positive results is already under the microscope. Operating the offense throughout the offseason successfully is a step in the right direction.
2025 Projected Stats
- More than 2,500 passing yards
- 2-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio
- Better than 65% of passes completed
In terms of stat line for a 17-game starter, not only should this be achievable, but it’s also record-breaking. Rattler set the Saints’ single-season rookie passing yards record last season with 1,317. If Shough starts week one, he should be well on his way to surpassing the total Rattler put together in just six starts.
This completion percentage target is one that would show major growth in the area for Shough since his collegiate days. In the four seasons in which he attempted at least 100 passes, he never completed better than 63.5% of those attempts.
Health A Major Contributor To Success
On top of what he produces will be how available Shough is. The Saints have been adamant that they’re not concerned about the passer’s health history despite suffering three season-ending injuries during his collegiate career.
All three ailments were bone-breaks as opposed to soft-tissue injury, making re-injury concerns minimal even though one of the events, a broken collarbone, happened twice.
Appearing in 13-17 games means he would be available for 80% of the season, a kind of stability the Saints have not had at the position since former passer Drew Brees, aside from Derek Carr’s first season.
Winning Makes Everything Better
While there can be elements of success in an otherwise unsuccessful season, wins and losses will often be used to tell the tale after the season concludes. The winningest rookie quarterback in their inaugural season was 1971 first-rounder Archie Manning.
That year, Manning started 12 games and won three. After that, Larry Cipa (1974) and Dave Wilson (supplemental first-rounder in 1988) each won a single game their premiere year.
Fun fact: New Orleans has the fewest franchise wins by a rookie quarterback in NFL history with just five.
If Shough can lead a single win, he joins rare air. If he paves the way for three, he ties the franchise record. Any more than that, he becomes an undeniable success.
