How Lane Kiffin’s move could reshape the entire SEC

By Chris Marler

I’m not a huge fan of hypotheticals. But, with so much uncertainty and chaos surrounding this year’s coaching carousel it begs the question – what if? 

What if Lane Kiffin does leave Oxford? What does that mean for everyone else? Make no mistake about it, he is at the top of everyone’s board for a head coach. Teams like Auburn may not have a shot at landing Kiffin, but he is the name for every school’s search. Period. 

So, what if he leaves Ole Miss what happens next? 

They slip back into the same mediocrity they’ve known for the past 60+ years, for one. But, that comes after they would presumably make the College Football Playoff. 

An 11–1 Ole Miss team should be firmly in the CFP field, and even positioned to host a first-round game. But would that shift if the Rebels entered with an interim coach? Logic says no, yet we’re only two years removed from the committee leaving out an undefeated Power 4 team simply because it lost its quarterback.

Are we really to assume they’ll do the right thing when an even bigger piece of a football team is gone? I’m not holding my breath. 

Assuming Kiffin leaves, I think the first thing Ole Miss would need to do is figure out their replacement. My assumption is that Joe Judge would take over as interim coach. Judge is in his second year on the Rebels’ staff as quarterbacks coach, and his track record stands out. After serving as head coach of the New York Giants, working under Nick Saban at Alabama and spending eight seasons with Bill Belichick, he brings the strongest résumé of anyone on the current staff.

But, what about after? The same names that are circulating in every other coaching search will be circulated in Ole Miss’. You’d have to think that Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall gets one of the first calls. The next question is how far behind they might be in the process of landing a coach like him. The one that follows is just as important: how much are they willing to spend to get him?

Rumor has it Ole Miss is prepared to offer Kiffin roughly $13 million a year to stay. Would they shell out that kind of money for someone else? Absolutely not. And that may be the going rate in today’s market.

Kiffin’s successor is unlikely to be another marquee, currently employed Power Four head coach. The biggest name who fits that profile is Eli Drinkwitz, who’s been listed as the favorite for the Penn State job (+150) and holds the second-best odds to land at Florida (+500) behind Kiffin.

There’s no reason to assume that Ole Miss would pay more than either of those schools, if for no other reason than they’re simply not as desperate. 

If you want to get real weird, here’s a hypothetical for you. 

Would they look for another offensive-minded coach in Kiffin’s mold? Someone familiar with his system from their time together in Oxford? Or would they prioritize a candidate with Mississippi ties and strong recruiting connections across the state?

What about all three? 

If the sky starts falling, then who’s to say Ole Miss doesn’t take a swing at Jeff Lebby at Mississippi State. Nothing brings people together like a win over a rival. From a PR standpoint, few things smooth over an embarrassing loss like landing a win over your rival. Lebby could be the hire that accomplishes both.

Would he turn it down? Hard to say. But honestly, the comedy of him doing it would be unmatched.

All hypothetical, of course…for now.