MARLER: Why Lane Kiffin to LSU makes more sense than anywhere else

By Chris Marler

Lane Kiffin’s family visited LSU on Monday, and the courting of the nation’s most sought after coach is officially on in Baton Rouge. 

This year’s coaching carousel has been must see television. If you’re keeping score at home, Kiffin is apparently the betting favorite to land roughly six (or) seven of the jobs. Ok sorry, I’ll stop. 

The number isn’t that high, but in the last week alone he’s been the betting favorite to be the next New York Giants head coach (+400) and the Florida Gators next coach (-200). Oh, and for good measure, he has the fourth best odds to be the next coach in Baton Rouge at +700. 

Lane Kiffin coming to LSU makes too much sense. Does that mean it will happen? No. 

But to quote Chris Farley in Billy Madison – “You can imagine what it would be like, right?”

Several programs see Lane Kiffin as the perfect fit, but LSU may be the only place that truly fits him in return, and the only job that offers what he’s never fully had elsewhere: a talent-rich recruiting base with virtually no in-state competition.

Sure Florida has a ton of talent across the state. But, how many of those kids are staying home versus a place like LSU and the state of Louisiana. In today’s age of college football, roster management, retention and talent acquisition are far more important than anything else. It’s always been more about the Jimmys and the Joes than X’s and the O’s. But now, acquiring the right amount of high school recruiting talent and portal acquisitions are priority number one. 

No one has been better at getting talent in the portal than Lane Kiffin. In the last four years, he’s had a top four class. By comparison, LSU’s average portal class ranking is 16th over the same four years. 

He’s also been great at winning the battle of attrition better than most coaches in college football. Since 2022, he’s lost 108 players and brought in 99. That’s an exchange rate of -8 players but when comparing blue chip players gained versus blue chip players lost he’s +24. To put that in perspective, LSU is only +14 during that same time, even after bringing in last year’s class that was littered with blue chippers. 

He’s also been great at developing talent, putting 23 players in the NFL since he arrived in Oxford. That’s as many as Ole Miss had as a program in the previous ten years. 

Despite the success he’s had in Oxford, if there’s one thing Kiffin hasn’t done especially well is high school recruiting. That would almost certainly change if he came to LSU, especially in comparison to the state of Mississippi and Ole Miss.

Louisiana has long been one of the nation’s biggest talent states. For the 2025 season, it produced 102 NFL players, sixth-most in the country, while Mississippi didn’t crack the top 10. Louisiana also produced 12 recruits in last year’s On3 Top 300, again ranking sixth, compared to Mississippi’s seven, which placed 13th.

The issue for LSU has been keeping the in-state talent. Since 2020, the year that Kiffin started at Ole Miss, the state of Louisiana has produced 44 more blue chip recruits than the state of Mississippi. LSU landed 47.1% of those players. That might not sound low at first glance, but it is when compared to the five years before 2020, when LSU signed at least six of Louisiana’s top ten recruits in four of those five cycles, landing 64% of the state’s top-ten talent overall.

That number may have fallen over the past few years, but the best players in the state still want to play for LSU. Dating back to 2015, of the 16 five-stars the state has produced, 14 of them have committed to LSU out of high school. 

Kiffin hasn’t had anywhere close to that level of success with recruiting his current state. Ole Miss has signed just 31.5% blue chip players in the state since he took over (23-of-73). And of the four five-star recruits the state has produced in that time, Ole Miss whiffed on three of them. 

That issue disappears at LSU, a program that has averaged a No. 7.4 recruiting class over the last seven cycles, compared to Ole Miss’ average of No. 21. Louisiana athletes grow up wanting to play for LSU, and players across the country, especially in the portal, want to play for Lane Kiffin. Pairing those two strengths in Baton Rouge feels like the final puzzle piece for both sides.