Saints hoping Tyler Shough continues second-year QB leaps

By Ross Jackson

During the division round of the NFL playoffs this year, two quarterbacks will serve as a trend that the New Orleans Saints are hoping to continue with quarterback Tyler Shough. 

New England Patriots passer Drake Maye and Denver Broncos signal caller Bo Nix will each play host to their opposition as the second round of the playoffs kicks off. 

The Saints would like to be in the same situation a year from now. 

In order to do so, New Orleans will have to achieve some of the same things the Patriots and Broncos did. Continue to add weapons around their young passer and strengthen an already impressive defense on the other side of the ball. 

But what New Orleans can’t provide and can only hope to see from their young quarterback is continued development and on-field success. 

Shough had a remarkable rookie season, shattering many rookie passing records in New Orleans and is dedicated to coming back even better in 2026. Nix, and Maye especially, are examples of the ever-feared “sophomore slump” turning into a “sophomore jump” instead. 

Nix’s Two-Year Consistency and Clutch Performances

Rookie year: 17 games started, 376/567 (66.3%), 3,775 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions and a 93.3 passer rating 

Second year: 17 games starter, 388/612 (63.4%), 3,931 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions and an 87.8 passer rating 

The Denver passer’s yards per game increased and sack percentage trended down. He also put together seven game winning drives in 2025, up from three his rookie season. 

While his raw stat production didn’t change much, having no dip in his performance and seeing his comfort in clutch situations should both be desirable elements of Shough’s second year. 

Maye’s Development Path is the Goal

Rookie year: 12 games started, 225/338 (66.6%), 2,276 passing yards, 16 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions and an 88.1 passer rating 

Second year: 17 games started, 354/492 (72.0%), 4,394 passing yards, 31 passing touchdowns, eight interceptions and a 113.5 passer rating 

Maye led two game-winning drives in 2025 after notching none as a rookie, but his yards per game skyrocketed from 175.1 to 258.5 as he entered his second season and saw a 93% increase in passing yards despite only a 42% increase in games played. 

Shough’s Second Year Could be Great 

While ending up in the MVP conversation the way that Maye did is far from guaranteed, using the statistical increases that Nix and Maye saw from year one to year two displays the hope that Shough’s promise is turning into real possibility. 

Rookie year: 9 games started, 221/327 (67.6%), 2,384 passing yards, 10 passing touchdowns, six interceptions and a 91.3 passer rating 

Shough also led three game-winning drives, the same as Nix in his rookie season. If we look at the percentage increase of some of the stats between the two quarterbacks, Shough’s stat line could be very impressive by the end of his second year. 

Using Maye’s Increases

Maye threw 45.5% more passes in 2025 and completed 5.4% more of those attempts. He also threw for a passing yards increase of 93%. His touchdown percentage leapt 1.9%. 

Maye also dropped his interception percentage from 3.0% to 1.6%. Because Shough’s rookie-year interception percentage was already just 1.8%, we’ll keep that projection. 

Using Nix’s Increases

The decision to keep Shough’s 1.8% interception rate is twofold, as it matches Nix’s from his second season. We’ll apply the same game-winning drive increase and reduce Shough’s sack percentage (8.66%) by the same rate as Nix’s (down 17%). 

Projection

17 games started, 347/476 (72.8%), 4.601 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns, nine interceptions and a 112.0 passer rating (calculated using Pro Football Reference’s passer rating calculator)

In this scenario, Shough would also lead seven game-winning drives and see his times sacks hover in the high-30s. That sack number being one that Shough and the Saints would like to see decreasing in 2026 on average. 

That kind of season is, of course, considering the best scenario from each of these passers. Meaning the truth will lie somewhere between this and a worst-case scenario. But any kind of upward trajectory for Shough in his second year would be a positive for New Orleans. Matching the models dominating the AFC would be a home run.