March Madness Play-In Bets: NC State vs Texas Picks

By Chris Marler

The first full day of March Madness doesn’t begin until Thursday. That’s when we get 16 days of straight basketball starting at 11:15 AM CT taking us until past the midnight hour for a couple days. While we’ll have to wait a few more days for that, the play-in games in the tournament begin tonight, and they kickoff with a familiar face around Louisiana. 

Will Wade’s NC State Wolfpack faces Texas in a matchup of No. 11 Seeds with the winner advancing to play BYU. We’ll be posting our best bets for the entire tournament. Here are our best bets for night one of the madness. 

Best Bets 

NC State/Texas Over 158.5

NC State -1 

Let Me Explain…

Texas and NC State were two of the best teams in America against the total this season. NC State was 21-12 versus the over this season which was tied for the most of any Power Four teams in America. Texas was right behind them with 20 at 20-12. These two met back in November at the Maui Invitational and scored a combined 199 points in a game that Texas won 102-97. 

These two defenses don’t do a great job at forcing their opponents into mistakes. Texas ranks 346th nationally in turnover rate forced. NC State on the other hand ranks 336th nationally in opponents 3-point attempts and are 287th in the country in 3-point percentage allowed. The Wolfpack also ranks in the top ten nationally in 3-point percentage on offense. 

Does Will Wade think NC State is a tourney team? 🤔

“We lost to Georgia Tech. I mean, damn. I hope we can get to Dayton… It’s who we are. We’re soft.” 😳

(🎥: @TheWolfpacker) pic.twitter.com/jSLrQI4tkG

— The Field of 68 (@TheFieldOf68) February 15, 2026

These two teams are pretty evenly ranked in the NET Rankings with the Wolfpack ranking 36th and Texas ranking just behind them at No. 42. Texas was 7-13 this season against Quad 1 and Quad II teams while NC State finished the regular season 11-12. Texas finished their 2025-2026 campaign losing five of their last six games which included four of those five losses coming by double digits. 

Take Will Wade and the Wolfpack.