It’s a big weekend in the SEC, but then again every weekend is a big weekend in SEC baseball. Despite having ten ranked teams in the latest Top 25 polls, there are only two ranked match-ups out of the eight weekend series around the league. Still, there’s a lot of juice in the slate, including four arch rivals facing off.
Here’s our SEC weekend preview for the third week of conference play.
What’s At Stake
There’s a logjam for first place after two weeks in conference play. That shouldn’t be a surprise with so few games played so far, but having seven teams tied for first place is still pretty wild. Of those seven teams only two are going to face off this weekend, and it’s the (kind of) newcomers, Oklahoma and Texas.
It feels like Texas, Arkansas, Auburn and Mississippi State have separated themselves a bit from the rest of the pack in terms of who is elite. Oklahoma and Georgia also belong in that conversation, but pitching travels and most of those first four do that better than everyone else in the league.
The winner of the Texas-Oklahoma game will get a series win over a top ten team, and for Texas it would be their second such win in as consecutive weeks.
Whoever wins the aforementioned series may seize control of the conference early, but they still might see themselves looking up at another team. That’s because Georgia hosts the worst team in the conference, South Carolina, and could very well sweep the Gamecocks and get to 7-2 in the standings.
Bold Prediction
Don’t be surprised if two road teams win this week in hostile environments – Tennessee and Auburn. Don’t be surprised if Auburn is able to sweep Alabama, either.
Alabama is coming off a huge series sweep over Florida last weekend, but they still have a ton of struggles at the plate. Alabama is second to last in the conference in hitting with just a team batting average of .269. They strike out a lot, and can struggle with good pitching. Auburn has one of the best staffs in the country.
Best Series
I understand the Iron Bowl, Florida-Georgia, and the Red River Rivalry. There is no rivalry with more genuine hatred than Ole Miss and Mississippi State.
This weekend the Rebels will host their in-state rival, Mississippi State. It’s hard to back this up since they lost their opening weekend series to Arkansas, but I feel like Mississippi State may have the highest ceiling of anyone in the league. They’re very, very good.
Ole Miss is good too, but they really struggle offensively. They rank 14th in the SEC in batting average and have struck out more than any other team in the league with 238 in 819 at-bats. That’s nearly a 30 percent strikeout rate.
Again, I think Ole Miss is good, I just think Mississippi State is elite. They’ll ultimately win this series, but that atmosphere at Swayze should be absolutely electric.
Upset Alert
This matchup is full of irony. It’s wild to watch a team that’s underwhelmed all year hope to desperately find it in March and it be LSU baseball and not Kentucky baseball. These two have had parallel seasons when it comes to Kentucky basketball and LSU baseball. Both perennial powers have the best rosters in the country on paper, but really stumbled out of the gate.
I rarely bought into Kentucky over the last half decade when they fit that description. However, this LSU baseball team still firmly has a hold on my confidence and belief, or potential delusion. I just think they’re too talented to not turn it around especially against a team like Kentucky that’s gettable.
The Wildcats have been good this season and have become one of the best small ball clubs in the country. They aren’t flashy at all. Offensively they have the fewest home runs (22) in the SEC but the most sacrifice hits (17) and stolen bases (69).
LSU is a very flawed team, but they are at home, and if you really think about it, they’re a hanging curve and cleanly fielded ground ball away from being 4-2 instead of 2-4 in conference. LSU will get a much needed win this weekend.
