By Hunt Palmer
Little about this weekend looks the way it should have in February.
The easy storyline was to be Paul Mainieri’s return to Alex Box Stadium as the South Carolina head coach. He was let go in March. LSU was to be looking for wins, wins that aided postseason positioning, not postseason life. Jake Brown won’t play. Casan Evans probably won’t. The weather may not cooperate, either.
It’s a mess.
Should either South Carolina or LSU sweep the series, hope will flicker. That would get South Carolina to 10 SEC wins and LSU to nine. Both teams have massive RPI problems but significant opportunities next week, but with those come difficult games to win.
Ultimately, it’s a series between a pair of teams mired in dreadful seasons.
AWFUL OFFENSE
South Carolina has been putrid with the bats.
The Gamecocks rank last in the SEC in runs scored, batting average, on base percentage, walks and steals. Only two teams strike out more often, and they’re 10th in homers. The only redeeming stat is doubles where they rank fourth.
They were shut out on three hits by The Citadel on Tuesday. Two weeks ago, they scored six total runs on Mississippi State. They’ve been held to three runs or less in 12 of 21 SEC games and are averaging four runs per game in league play.
Talmadge Lecroy is the only everyday player with a batting average over .247 or an on base over .310 in league play. No one has hit five home runs in SEC games.
This Tiger pitching staff was very poor against Mississippi State, and it’s compromised again without Casan Evans in the projected rotation. Still, if the Tigers can throw strikes, South Carolina has not shown the ability to do much damage.
STARTER SPOTLIGHT
William Schmidt has to find a way to pitch deeper into games. He has not completed a sixth inning in SEC play over seven starts. Schmidt has not pitched poorly. He’s allowed three or less runs in five of his seven SEC starts. Still, he’s being pulled to early considering the tax being put on the bullpen without another length option in the weekend rotation.
I asked Jay Johnson about Schmidt getting more outs, and he said he was going to keep his answer internal. My personal opinion is that Schmidt needs to trust his fastball more often. Fastballs control counts and create earlier contact. Sliders are tougher to hit, but they produce more balls and foul balls. Those run pitch counts up.
Schmidt needs to find 18 outs this weekend.
This is also a huge opportunity for Marcos Paz. The talented freshman had commanded the ball better before walking three batters at State last week. The coaching staff sees a lot of promise in Paz and has taken things slowly post-injury. If the Tigers are going to do some damage this weekend, 12 outs from Paz instead of six would be ideal.
Like Schmidt, Paz needs to challenge the strike zone against Carolina hitting. The Tiger arms need to pitch like their offense can produce eight runs per game. It did last week against a significantly better pitching staff. Fill up the strike zone and put hitters away when possible.
For the Gamecocks, it’ll be Amp Phillips in game one and Brandon Stone in game two.
Phillips got off to a wonderful start in SEC play. In five starts against Florida, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas and Mizzou, he worked 23.2 innings and allowed just five earned runs. That’s a 1.52 ERA. Over his last two against Mississippi State and Kentucky, he’s allowed eight earned runs in 5.1 innings. That’s a 13.50 ERA.
Brandon Stone is a sinker ball specialist. Sometimes it doesn’t sink. He’s allowed five homers in his last two starts over 11.1 innings. Rarely do front line SEC starters have less strikeouts than innings. Stone has 52 in 55 innings. He’s trying to get ground balls.
The wind is forecast to come in from the north all weekend which should be good for pitchers.
EXTRA OUTS
These two teams have kicked the ball all over the yard this year. Alabama has been worse than both, but LSU ranks 15th in the SEC, and South Carolina is 14th. LSU has allowed 37 unearned runs this year. South Carolina has allowed 30. Only Alabama’s 38 has topped those.
These two teams have their offensive lulls and pitching problems. Defensive miscues can exacerbate all of that and breathe life into either a home dugout or a scrappy visiting crew.
The team that can keep the errors to two or three on the weekend might be the team that finds multiple wins.
More LSU Stories
