We continue our countdown to kickoff with another new offseason series: predicting the record for each team in the SEC with a game by game look at their schedule.
Up next, the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Strength of Schedule: 11th in the SEC
There are some really glaring scares for this year’s Alabama team. They host Georgia and Texas A&M and travel to LSU and Tennessee. They also play all four of those games in a row over a five week stretch. Alabama could be better than expected this season, but there are a lot of pressure points on this schedule.
It’s the sixth hardest schedule in the SEC as we illustrated in our previous article on the toughest schedules in the SEC.
Biggest game of the year: Texas A&M
There’s a chance that Alabama has two losses heading into this game with Georgia and Tennessee being the lead up to this showdown in Tuscaloosa. For a third straight year, Kalen DeBoer and Alabama will face a stretch of at least three consecutive games against ranked opponents. Texas A&M should be ranked in this one. That can be good news for Alabama considering Kalen DeBoer has the best record in America against top 25 teams at 20-6.
It would be shocking if Alabama didn’t have a loss coming into this game. There’s a good chance they have two. That would make this game massive for playoff implications. Alabama has had multiple losses before the month of November just once in the last 18 years. It just so happened to be in DeBoer’s first year at Alabama.
People were restless then. Imagine if they had three.
Trap Game: Mississippi State
On the road. Cowbells everywhere. A week before they start a brutal stretch in the season and face their biggest nemesis, Georgia. Alabama has played Georgia in the regular season twice in the previous two seasons, and they had a bye week before each. This time they’ll head to Starkville, in a hostile environment against a team they’ll be heavily favored against. We’ve seen DeBoer fail to keep his team focused in games like this before. This has all the ingredients for a very dangerous trap game for Alabama.
Not a must win, but a can’t lose game of the year: South Carolina
This should be pretty terrifying for Alabama considering they should’ve lost to South Carolina in each of the past two seasons. This year sets up a little better for Alabama. They shouldn’t be caught off guard by the Gamecocks this year, and the game is slated for the night window. Alabama getting an upstart team that is loaded with talent at night instead of a sleepy early game is great news for them. But, if they play with their food against the Gamecocks like they have the last two years they could be in trouble. The first half of the schedule this season for Alabama is much easier than the back half. That’s why it’s so important for them to make it out unscathed.
Toughest Stretch
The stretch of games from October 10 to November 7 is the toughest of any team in the conference. Alabama will play four games in five weeks against Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M and LSU. Tennessee and LSU will both be on the road.
There are a ton of question marks on this year’s Alabama team. DeBoer has done very well in his first two years against the group of teams in this stretch. He’s 5-2 against Georgia, Tennessee, and LSU and has yet to play Texas A&M. Three of those four teams have played in the CFP in the last two years, and the lone team that hasn’t made it, LSU, has a $40 million roster and Lane Kiffin as their head coach.
Alabama has to go 2-2 in this stretch if they have a chance at returning to the CFP.
Ceiling and Floor: 10-2 and 6-6
The fluctuation and sliding doors that can happen with Alabama this season is wild to think about. It feels like Georgia should definitely beat them, but it’s felt that way since 2021 when Nick Saban was still the head coach. The result has still been just a 2-7 record for Kirby Smart against his former employer.
The stretch in November after LSU should be easy, and the Tide should start 3-0 as well. That’s assuming they don’t lose to Florida State which proved to be a massively incorrect assumption a season ago. There are a ton of potholes on this schedule for Alabama and a ton of teams that have an incredible amount of mystery surrounding them. Teams like Kentucky and Mississippi State took Texas to the wire a season ago at home. Both get Alabama at home this year.
The ceiling feels like it’s ten wins this year because I don’t see Alabama beating Georgia, and I think they’ll lose at least one against LSU or Texas A&M. Kalen DeBoer is a better coach than people around the league give him credit for, but the trenches are the weakest they’ve been in two decades, and there’s no guarantee that the run game will be fixed after losing their leading rusher and four of five starters on the offensive line. This team only has seven seniors on it as well. It could be a tough road for Alabama this year.
Season Prediction: 8-4
East Carolina – W 48-13
At Kentucky – W 31-21
Florida State – 31-10
South Carolina – L 24-28
At Mississippi State – W 41-28
Georgia – L 17-28
At Tennessee – W 27-24
Texas A&M – L 27-28
At LSU – L 21-28
At Vanderbilt – W 38-10
Chattanooga – W 63-7
Auburn – W 30-24
