We continue our countdown to kickoff with another new offseason series: predicting the record for each team in the SEC with a game by game look at their schedule.
Up next, the Florida Gators.
Strength of Schedule: 7th in the SEC
Florida doesn’t play anyone with a pulse out of conference. They also get a majority of their toughest games at home. But, the quality of opponents packed into the middle of the schedule is brutal. They get Auburn and Ole Miss in back to back weeks. They also play Texas, Georgia, and Oklahoma in a four week stretch that will most likely result in an 0-3 showing.
It’s the 7th hardest schedule in the SEC as we illustrated in our previous article on the toughest schedules in the SEC.
Biggest game of the year: South Carolina
If the season is chalk and the team favored in every matchup wins, Florida will most likely be 3-2 or 2-3 entering this game. They have a stretch at Auburn, Ole Miss, and at Missouri leading up to this game. There are a lot of people high on the Gators this year, and who knows, maybe they end up being way ahead of schedule in year one under Jon Sumrall. Regardless of what their record is in those first few games the South Carolina game comes at a pivotal point of the season. It’s one week before Texas and two weeks before the bye. It’s also their last chance to get a confidence boost before embarking on a brutal three game stretch against Texas, Georgia, and Oklahoma.
Florida gets South Carolina at home in a game where the Gamecocks should be 4-1 coming in, and the outcome will paint a pretty clear picture for both sides about the direction either team is heading the rest of the season. For Florida’s sake it could be a huge help in getting Jon Sumrall’s first team to bowl eligibility.
Best chance at an upset: Ole Miss
This is the biggest trap game of the year in the SEC, and no one seems to be talking about it. The Ole Miss-LSU game has been talked about ad nauseum since Lane Kiffin left Oxford for Baton Rouge. It will be the highest watched and most anticipated game in the country this season. Whoever wins or loses will have a massive uphill battle waiting for them the following week. Getting back up emotionally, physically, and mentally a week later is going to be very hard.
For Ole Miss, it’s even harder. LSU at least gets to return home for their next game. The Rebels head to the Swamp. If you’re wondering how tough of a place that is to play for a team with high expectations and little focus, ask Texas. They found out last year when the Gators upset the Longhorns, 29-21.
Trap Game: at Kentucky
Florida has had very little issues with Kentucky throughout their history. This year may be no different. Kentucky is a huge mystery going into this season though. They mirror a lot of the same intriguing questions that Florida has. Each has a new head coach, new offensive coordinator, and a new quarterback. That’s just the tip of the iceberg with the changes. On paper this should be a win for Florida, but coming off the heels of what will most likely be three losses in a row to Texas, Georgia, and Oklahoma, a trip to Lexington may not be that easy.
Toughest Stretch: Week 7 thru Week 10
I’ve referenced this stretch numerous times already, and it’s not a secret that it’s the hardest stretch of the season. Florida will get a three game stretch against Texas, Georgia, and Oklahoma over a four week span in mid October to early November. The Texas game is on the road. The Oklahoma game is at home. The Georgia game is disguised as a neutral site game, but will be played in Atlanta roughly 80 miles away from Georgia’s campus in Mercedes Benz Stadium.
Ceiling and Floor: 8-4 and 4-8
I will not be moved off of the idea that Florida is staring at least three losses directly in the face this year. The week seven through week ten slate will result in an 0-3 record. I think year one will be a success for Florida, and I think they’ll be in a lot of close games. Will they know how to win those close games in 2026? That’s not often a trait of a team with a coach in his first year at a program. That doesn’t mean that it won’t happen, but it isn’t something I’d necessarily be counting on.
The thing that gives me the most confidence with this program moving in the right direction is the hiring of an elite offensive coordinator like Buster Faulkner. I spoke to someone in his family last year, and the feeling was that he is very interested in being a head coach. So, Jon Sumrall being able to poach him from another power four program for the same position was a huge win. I’m excited to see how they look in year one, but I think the ceiling is 8-4 and the floor is 4-8 with them being much more likely to end up in the middle or closer to the ceiling.
Season Prediction: 6-6
FAU – W 45-17
Campbell – W 63-10
At Auburn – L 30-31
Ole Miss – L 28-30
At Missouri – W 27-24
South Carolina – L 23-28
At Texas – L 17-34
At Georgia – L 13-31
Oklahoma – L 17-24
At Kentucky – W 27-17
Vanderbilt – W 27-21
At Florida State – W 30-23
Previous Schedule Predictions and Breakdowns
