Talking season is well underway in the world of college football. One of the annual pieces that tends to draw the most conversation is the ESPN FPI rankings. The annual metrics include rankings for every FBS team in the country, as well as strength of schedule rankings and odds to make the CFP.
The initial rankings were released on Thursday. Now the debate begins and bookmarks are made to see how inaccurate they are at season’s end.
A look back
One of the biggest complaints from a national standpoint about the FPI is the perceived bias that favors the SEC every year. There are a lot of misguided arguments about SEC bias in the national media. Most of them are made without logic. But, the FPI one? That one is pretty fair.
If it’s not biased, it’s at the very least very flawed. Who can forget the 2019 season that featured Alabama ranked at No. 2 and LSU at No. 3 for a full two weeks after LSU beat Alabama on the field in Tuscaloosa.
Last year’s Top 25 was flawed, as well. Not only did it have Texas at No. 1, but it also included 12 teams in the top 25 that ended up unranked at season’s end. It didn’t have a single Group of Six school included in the rankings and five ended up in the final rankings. Nineteen of the 25 teams were from just two conferences, the Big Ten and SEC, and despite making up 76 percent of the field, Indiana wasn’t included at all.
This year’s rankings
1. Ohio State
2. Texas
3. Notre Dame
4. Oregon
5. Georgia
6. Indiana
7. Miami
8. Alabama
9. LSU
10. Texas Tech
11. Texas A&M
12. Oklahoma
13. Southern Cal
14. Ole Miss
15. Michigan
16. Tennessee
17. Penn State
18. Florida
19. Clemson
20. BYU
21. Missouri
22. Auburn
23. South Carolina
24. SMU
25. Iowa
SEC teams outside the Top 25
29. Vanderbilt
40. Kentucky
47. Arkansas
49. Mississippi State
Takeaways
The main takeaway should be that in the NIL era it feels like the top five are going to be the same every year no matter what. Everyone might as well pencil in Ohio State, Texas, Notre Dame, Oregon and Georgia in the top five annually and figure out the rest later.
The other thing that shouldn’t be surprising, but is absolutely not going to hold true at season’s end, is the absence of non-Power Four teams. It seems foolish to think a contractually bound CFP team is somehow not one of the top 25 teams in all of FBS. Especially when teams like Arkansas, Florida and South Carolina were included a year ago over. Sacrificing potential ten win teams from outside the Power Four for three SEC teams that combined for ten total wins feels dumb. It feels even dumber to think it will most likely happen again this year.
