Oklahoma stormed the playoff party a season ago in a year that many thought would end in hot seat talk not hosting a home CFP game. This year the vibes are much different.
They are one of six teams in the SEC that return a starting quarterback, and they should be improved up front on the offensive line and in the run game. They’ll pair that with one of the best interior defensive lines in the country in the trenches.
How will they navigate what is considered one of the toughest schedules in the conference though? Let’s take a look.
Strength of Schedule: 4th in the SEC
Oklahoma should start the year as a top ten team once again, but it could go sideways quickly in the first half of the season.
The Sooners play at Michigan and Georgia in September before taking the earliest bye of any team in the conference. The Week 5 bye week is ahead of their annual rivalry game against Texas and means they will have to play eight consecutive games to close the season.
Those eight games include Texas, Ole Miss and Texas A&M, with a road trip to the Swamp sprinkled in just for fun.
It’s the fourth toughest schedule as we illustrated in our previous look at the toughest schedules in the SEC.
Biggest Game of the Year: Texas
This will be on the heels of a loss to Georgia and a bye week leading up to their massive annual rivalry game with Texas.
Texas versus Oklahoma always has a lot on the line, but this year could especially be one to remember. It’s early enough in the season where there will still be plenty of time to shape their season after, but you have to think the winner will be way ahead of schedule and in an ideal position to get to the CFP once again.
Not a must-win, but a can’t lose: Michigan
Oklahoma and Michigan met a season ago under much different circumstances. It was a massive coming out party for quarterback John Mateer. It was a massive metaphorical falling on his face for Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood.
This year the game travels up north to Ann Arbor. It’s the largest stadium in the country, but as Texas showed two seasons ago, it’s not a death blow to opposing teams when they see it on the schedule.
There will be a lot of national attention on that game in a day full of big out of conference games for the SEC. A Week 2 game is never a must win situation in the age of the 12 team playoff. However, even if it’s not a must win, it is definitely a can’t lose scenario if Oklahoma wants to get to the CFP.
Losing to Michigan would be a really tough start to the first half of the season that also includes back-to-back games between Georgia and Texas two weeks later.
Toughest Stretch: Week 9 through 12
Having Georgia and Texas on the schedule back-to-back is awful. That being said, the Sooners do have a bye week between those two games. The toughest stretch regardless of their record in those two games will come a few weeks later as they try to get through eight games without a bye after taking theirs earlier than 13 other teams in the league.
Starting in Week 9 the Sooners play a four game stretch against South Carolina, Florida, Ole Miss and Texas A&M. That’s a tough stretch for sure, but only two of those teams are projected to be top 15 this season in the preseason polls. Even better, they get three of those four games at home.
Oklahoma will likely be favored in all four of those games, especially with only one coming on the road. But as anyone who follows the SEC knows, there’s no such thing as an automatic win.
It should be more than it would be shocking for the Sooners to lose at least one of those four.
Ceiling and Floor: 11-1 and 7-5
There’s a lot to like about this year’s Oklahoma team. It is year two for John Mateer and offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle in the SEC. It’s year three for them together after spending a year at Washington State together. The defense shouldn’t take a huge step back despite losing some productivity off the edge. That, of course, is Brent Venables’ strength as a coach.
The ceiling for the Sooners is 11-1. That would include them winning all the games they will most likely be favored to win (depending on the Michigan point spread), while splitting the Georgia and Texas games 1-1.
The floor is 7-5 and would bring losses from Georgia and Texas, as well as some combination of teams from the group of Michigan, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Florida and Texas A&M. Road trips to Missouri and Mississippi State can be scary, as well.
Season Prediction: 9-3
Full disclosure, I penciled Oklahoma in for a 10-2 record when I first wrote this, but settled on 9-3 with a third loss coming to Ole Miss.
This is a really good Oklahoma team with a lot going for them heading into the season, especially with the way the schedule sets up. I expect them to compete for a spot in the College Football Playoff once again.
UTEP – W
At Michigan – W
New Mexico – W
Georgia – L
Texas – L
Kentucky – W
At Mississippi State – W
South Carolina – W
At Florida – W
Ole Miss – L
Texas A&M – W
At Missouri – W
