Missouri has thrived in the role of the underdog over the last few years under Eli Drinkwitz. The Tigers have won 29 games in the last three seasons.
This year, they’ll face four of the five SEC teams that made the College Football Playoff. They’ll have a new starter at quarterback and a ton of production to replace defensively, but Eli Drinkwitz has the nation’s best running back and the best offensive line he’s had in six years. It could be time for Missouri to shock the SEC once again in 2026.
Strength of Schedule: 9th in the SEC
Missouri and Tennessee are basically tied in these rankings. The only difference is that Missouri plays Georgia and Tennessee does not. The road game to their oldest rival, Kansas, in Week 2 will be trickier than people think.
Playing two CFP teams (Texas A&M and Ole Miss) back-to-back before their bye week isn’t easy. And by the way, they close the season with Texas, Georgia and Oklahoma in a four week stretch.
Most Important Game of the Year: Florida
Missouri should be favored in their first four games of the year. Unlike other teams, they don’t have a stretch of more than two games in a row against preseason ranked teams. They have multiple stints against two, though. One of those comes after playing Florida. Immediately following the home game against the Gators, Missouri hosts Texas A&M and goes to Oxford to face Ole Miss.
Winning that Florida game could get the Tigers to five wins and one shy of bowl eligibility. Burying the lede here, it would also potentially give Missouri a 5-0 record. The Tigers get Florida at home where they’ve won three of the last four. That being said, the last two were by a combined three points.
Still, Columbia can be a sneaky difficult place to go on the road and get a win. Making sure they protect home field advantage will be crucial to the confidence of this team in the second half of the season.
Upset Special? Texas A&M
The biggest difference between this year and last year for Missouri will be their ability, or potential inability, to rush the passer.
They lost over 43 percent of their production in sacks and TFLs from a season ago. Against most teams that will be a huge concern, but the issue seems less relevant against a team like A&M who will be replacing four starters and 177 career starts along the offensive line. The Aggies have owned this series as of late, winning the last three games by an average of 24.3 ppg.
The matchup feels less one-sided this year, and unlike a season ago, they hopefully won’t be starting a true freshman in his first career start. A&M is 4-4 in their last eight games away from home under Mike Elko, and two of those four wins were by a total of four points.
Toughest Stretch: November
The schedule sets up pretty well for Missouri this year. Yes, they get four CFP teams from a season ago, but they don’t have a stretch of more than two games in a row against preseason ranked teams.
They do get three in four weeks in November to close out the season, however. The final stretch of 2026 comes with three home games in four weeks and games against Texas, at Georgia and Oklahoma.
The thought of finishing the regular season against Oklahoma instead of Arkansas like they have the last 12 years is bad enough. Beginning the final month with back-to-back games against top five teams is even worse. They’ll need to rack up as many wins in the first two months as possible because few teams in the country would make it out of the final third unscathed.
Ceiling and Floor: 8-4 and 5-7
Missouri is used to being doubted, and I hate to be another person in a long line of doing so. It’s just very hard to believe that a strong game will be enough to carry this team to eight or more wins like they’ve had in each of the last three years.
Ahmad Hardy was fantastic a season ago when he led the SEC in rushing. He did so in two less games than Ole Miss’ Kewan Lacy. The bad news is that Hardy is coming off a significant injury in the offseason where he was shot in the leg.
Even if Hardy is healthy, the Tigers lost their best wide receiver, and will be starting a quarterback who lost his starting job at Ole Miss a season ago. The arm talent and intangibles for Austin Simmons are through the roof, but will it be enough to overcome a defense with glaring holes? I doubt it.
Season Prediction: 6-6
Arkansas-Pine Bluff – W
At Kansas – W
Troy – W
At Mississippi State – W
Florida – L
Texas A&M – L
At Ole Miss – L
Arkansas – W
Texas – L
At Georgia – L
Kentucky – W
Oklahoma – L
Previous Schedule Predictions and Breakdowns
