Jeff Lebby enters year three on a seat that isn’t necessarily scorching hot, but is absolutely warming up. Luckily for Lebby, he has two wild cards that people don’t seem to be talking enough about: Kamario Taylor and Zach Arnett.
How far this team goes in 2026 will largely depend on how far they can carry everyone. Will that be far enough to get back to a bowl and keep Lebby in town another year? That’s what we’re going to find out.
Strength of Schedule: 5th in the SEC
The Bulldogs have the highest opponent winning percentage of anyone in the SEC. Mississippi State’s opponents won 63.7 percent of their games a season ago, good for the fifth highest percentage of anyone in the country.
They’re the only team in the conference that has two true road games in the first three games of the year, and their three game stretch against LSU, Oklahoma and Texas with two of those away from home, is the hardest stretch of any team in the conference this year. That’s all before they close their season on the road in the Egg Bowl.
It’s the fifth toughest schedule as we illustrated in our previous look at the toughest schedules in the SEC.
Biggest Game of the Year: at Minnesota
The Egg Bowl will always be Mississippi State’s biggest game. But if we’re talking about the matchup with the most significance outside of rivalry week, it’s the Week 2 trip to Minnesota.
The perception that will be garnered, not just for either team, but for the conferences they play in are huge. Minnesota isn’t a pushover. The Gophers return the seventh most production of any team in the country this year with 68 percent.
A loss on the road in week two shouldn’t dictate Lebby’s job security. But, a loss would be pretty difficult to build confidence off of considering the schedule that lies ahead. It is on the road, but few places have been more welcoming to foreign visitors than the state of Minnesota in recent years.
Heyyo! Give me State.
Best Chance for an Upset: Alabama
On the road. Cowbells everywhere. A week before they start a brutal stretch in the season and face their biggest nemesis, Georgia. That’s when Alabama comes to town.
Keep in mind, Alabama has played Georgia in the regular season twice in the previous two seasons, and they had a bye week before each. This time they’ll head to Starkville, in a hostile environment against a team they’ll be heavily favored against.
We’ve seen DeBoer fail to keep his team focused in games like this before. This has all the ingredients for a very dangerous trap game for Alabama.
Toughest Stretch: October
Spooky season isn’t for the faint of heart in this league, but none have a bigger uphill battle than Mississippi State.
They face four preseason top-12 teams: Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma and Texas. The bye week after Alabama offers a brief reprieve, but it also kicks off a grueling seven-game stretch against opponents with College Football Playoff aspirations.
The home game against Alabama is probably their best chance at getting a win, but it’s hard to imagine a path to winning at LSU or Texas. After all, they’ve only won in Baton Rouge three times in the last 42 years. It’s also hard to imagine that State will be able to sneak up on Texas this season considering the scare they put into the Longhorns a season ago.
Ceiling and Floor: 7-5 and 4-8
The thing that’s been echoed all offseason about Mississippi State is that they are a bottom feeding team in the league with a coach destined to be on Indeed looking for a new job very soon. What hasn’t been talked about nearly as much are the two biggest strengths they have: Taylor and Arnett.
Kamario Taylor only started two games last season, but in those two games he averaged over 350 yards of offense. That was against a CFP team and in a bowl game too, not against FCS opponents.
Zach Arnett is back as the defensive coordinator in a role where he helped State to a top 32 defense in the nation in all but one of his seasons at the position, and the lone season outside the top 32 was a COVID year.
Kamario Taylor and Zach Arnett are good enough to jump up and knock off someone. The question is will they be enough to elevate Mississippi State’s ceiling significantly enough over seven wins?
Season Prediction: 5-7
UL Monroe – W
At Minnesota – W
At South Carolina – L
Missouri – W
Alabama – L
At LSU – L
Oklahoma – L
At Texas – L
Vanderbilt – W
Auburn – L
Tennessee Tech – W
At Ole Miss – L
Previous Schedule Predictions and Breakdowns
