Everyone loves a glow up. It’s the glow down after the 15 minutes of fame that people never want to happen. Don’t get me wrong, America loves a trainwreck, but that might not be the best way to describe this year’s Vanderbilt football team. It also may very well be the best description.
For 155 years college football existed in a world without Vanderbilt and Indiana ever being a threat on the gridiron. That came to a screeching halt the last two seasons.
One of those teams will most likely have continued success, in large part because of the NIL resources and lack of SEC schedule. The other is Vanderbilt. With that being said, let’s dive into their 2026 season and predict how far the Commodores will fall, if at all.
Schedule Strength: 12th in the SEC
Vanderbilt doesn’t really have any stretch that’s overwhelming. They play Auburn and Georgia. They are one of four teams in the conference to have back-to-back road games against SEC teams (Alabama, LSU and Texas).
It’s the sixth hardest schedule in the SEC as we illustrated in our previous article on the toughest schedules in the SEC.
Most Important Game of the Year: NC State
The Wolfpack were an eight win team a season ago, and return some good pieces, including quarterback CJ Bailey, who is one of the best quarterbacks in the ACC. He’s one of the few stars that returned. The Wolfpack lost four players who ranked in the top 60 nationally in the transfer portal rankings.
Any non-conference game featuring the SEC versus another Power Four team will get eyeballs. Whether or not Vanderbilt beats NC State doesn’t really tell a story of whether or not the SEC will be good or bad this season. It will, however, speak volumes as to whether or not Vanderbilt will resemble their former selves from a season ago.
Upset Alert: Auburn
Don’t laugh. Vanderbilt has beaten Auburn in each of the last two seasons and they also own the all-time series lead.
This is a great spot for Vanderbilt. It is their first road game which should give pause, but the game is sandwiched in between Florida and Tenenssee for Auburn.
The stability that Vanderbilt has as a coaching staff is a huge strength for Vanderbilt this year. It’s also one of the few that they have over other teams. Auburn is one of those teams though. The Tigers have a new coach, quarterback and a ton of new faces, many of which have very little, if any, Power Four experience.
Toughest Stretch: Week 3 through 6
Most every team in the conference has a brutal three to four game stretch this season. A majority of those teams don’t have those stretches until mid-October or November. That’s not the case with Vanderbilt. The Commodores will know exactly how their season will go by the halfway point of the season.
Their home game against NC State in Week 3 starts a four game stretch that features Auburn, Georgia and Ole Miss. Both Auburn and Georgia are on the road, as well.
Vanderbilt should start 2-0 this season. They also get the worst team in the league, Arkansas, immediately after this four game stretch. It will be imperative for them to win at least one of these four games in order to have any chance at getting back to a bowl game.
Ceiling and Floor: 6-6 and 2-10
It’s midnight, Cinderella.
Don’t get me wrong I love the direction of the program and what Clark Lea has built, so far. I also love that they’re starting to pull actual recruits from the portal. They’ve committed resources to stadium renovations. They committed resources to NIL. They landed a five-star quarterback last season, their first-five star in program history.
There are a lot of things to like about the direction of the program, but I have a hard time believing that a freshman quarterback is going to lead this team to anything but a rebuilding year. At best.
Schedule Prediction: 3-9
Austin Peay – W
Delaware – W
NC State – L
At Auburn – L
At Georgia – L
Ole Miss – L
Arkansas – W
At Kentucky – L
At Mississippi State – L
Alabama – L
At Florida – L
Tennessee – L
