October thrives on fear.
The entire month builds to the spookiest night of the year. Sometimes, at least in a haunted house, that fear comes when least expected.
LSU shouldn’t fear Saturday in Lexington. The Tigers are 9.5 point favorites for a reason. Head coach Lane Kiffin’s roster is better than his counterpart Will Stein’s.
LSU’s body of work is better than Kentucky’s.
The top of the SEC has separated itself. Weekly, Georgia is beating teams by 30 points. Alabama went to Kentucky and looked like Secretariat down the stretch with a 32-0 second half. The Tide blasted South Carolina and Mississippi State by a combined 64 points.
LSU (4-1, 1-1 in SEC) can join that number by trouncing the middle of the pack in October. That starts Saturday.
Kentucky (4-1, 2-1) has a pair of road SEC wins. That matches the production under former head coach Mark Stoops’s two-year output before his firing.
It’s progress for Stein. However, Texas A&M is a rudderless team without a strength, and South Carolina is pooling funds for a buyout of head coach Shane Beamer.
LSU should handle Kentucky, Mississippi State and Auburn in the way the Tigers dealt with Clemson and Texas A&M. That is, if this Tiger team plans on playing into December.
Two cases can be made for LSU.
One, this team has pulverized everything in its path save for Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and his Superman cape in the first half in Oxford. Clemson and Texas A&M were dead on arrival in Baton Rouge. It’s a team with a top-three total offense and a top-two total defense, a championship contender.
Two, Clemson and A&M both stink, and the only functional team on LSU’s schedule, Ole Miss, beat the Tigers, 32-24.
By the time the ghosts come out on October 31, one of those cases will be closed. The other will be crystallized.
Kentucky’s path to victory on Saturday night probably comes via the turnover. The Wildcats are second in the SEC in takeaways, and only two SEC teams have been more charitable than LSU.
If LSU hands out the candy at Kroger Field, Kentucky will take it.
If the game is played on even terms, the Tigers should dictate the outcome. LSU has been the bully for the majority of the season. If that continues for three weeks against middling conference foes, it sets up a monster November with a pair of primetime showdowns in Tiger Stadium with Alabama and Texas.
But like walking through the house of horrors, the SEC can be unpredictable. Ole Miss and Florida have found that out the last two weeks. All three October opponents can beat the Tigers on the right day.
For as good as LSU has played, a perfect November feels unlikely. That means a perfect October feels necessary. It starts Saturday night in the Bluegrass state.
We’re on our way to finding out if LSU is a playoff contender or is just masked as one.
