We are barreling towards the finish line of the college football regular season. And, for the first time in years the cliche comparison of college football chaos looking like the 2007 season actually has some merit to it. There are only three unranked teams left in all of FBS, and that’s been the case for several weeks now. In fact it’s the earliest in a regular season with this few teams are still undefeated in 49 years.
It’s been a chaotic September and October, and November should feature more of the same. What are we in store for? Here are four bold predictions.
1. LSU loses one more game, but still makes the CFP?
The notion that LSU has to win out to make the CFP doesn’t seem to hold nearly as much weight or truth as some want to suggest. According to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor they currently have a 49% chance of making the CFP no matter what. They also have the fourth-best odds to win the national title according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Does that change with a loss? Yes and no.
The biggest factor for LSU making the CFP isn’t whether they lose another game, it’s whether they lose another game and then lose in a potential SEC Championship Game appearance. Their odds of getting in at 9-3 with a loss to either Alabama, Texas or Tennessee are between 64-68% depending on who the loss is to.
2. Tennessee is the third SEC team to make the CFP
Everyone seemed to sell their shares of Tennessee stock following the last-second loss to South Carolina two weeks ago. It was a remarkable win for the Gamecocks, but let’s not forget how close Tennessee is to being 7-1. It took a botched fourth down play from their quarterback, LaNorris Sellers doing LaNorris Sellers “Superman” things and a strip sack followed by a 52-yard field goal as time expired. All of that happened in the final 3 ½ minutes of that game.
Tennessee is still a very good football team. They have the SEC’s second-leading rusher in DeSean Bishop and their teams lead the SEC in sacks with 35. They’ve lost two games by six total points. The sky is not falling folks. Their final four games also set up very well for them. Yes, there are two Top 15 teams still on the slate, but they get both of those games at home. We’ve seen how good this team is at home this season, and George MacIntyre is only going to continue to improve. They should get healthy off the bye week, and finish strong. I said they’d go 10-2 this summer, and I still believe this team is much closer to the version we saw against Alabama than the one we saw against South Carolina.
And, both were good enough to make the playoffs, regardless.
3. Kentucky loses at least two games
I know, I know. I hate being negative about the best feel-good story in the SEC this year too. But, I just can’t pretend like this team is good enough to make the CFP like some are suggesting. Credit Kentucky for doing a great job at winning games this season. They’re 7-1 with impressive wins over LSU, South Carolina, and Oklahoma. However, those three wins came by a combined 10 points and two were by one point each.
They close the season with three ranked opponents in a row, including two trips on the road and then finish with arch-rival Louisville at home. One of the biggest reasons for their success to start the year, besides Kenny Minchey’s quarterback play, is their absurd turnover margin. The Wildcats are currently +13 in that department which leads the SEC and ranks fourth in all of FBS. It’s hard to imagine that trend continuing in the next four games, especially considering that Missouri, Tennessee, and Florida all rank in the top four in the SEC in fewest turnovers lost this season.
4. South Carolina wins out
This one is easily the most far-fetched of the group, but hear me out.
It would sadly be the most South Carolina thing ever to win out and still not make the CFP. Just like in 2024, a slow start hampered the big picture goals for this team, but they seem to be playing their best football once again as the season comes to a close. The Gamecocks have won three straight, including two against Top 20 teams and two on the road as well. They get a favorable schedule to close the season with Texas A&M, Clemson, and Arkansas in November. They should be favored over all three of those teams. The big one in question would be Georgia. The Bulldogs are the No. 2 team in America, but have shown they can be beaten after their home loss to Auburn.
LaNorris Sellers has 15 touchdowns and just three interceptions over his last four games, and again the schedule for the final month sets up incredibly well. That’s also because of what Georgia has to face ahead of their trip to Columbia. South Carolina will get Texas A&M at home and a road trip to bottom dweller Arkansas before they host the Bulldogs. Georgia will be coming off their third straight ranked opponent with Florida, Ole Miss, and Missouri back-to-back-to-back.
