Statistically Speaking: Saints vs. Buccaneers

By Ross Jackson

The first divisional matchup of the New Orleans Saints’ season kicks off in Week 8. Their first division opponent are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the team sitting in first place in the NFC South at 5-3. 

Tampa is coming off of a brutal loss to the Detroit Lions on Monday Night Football. The team also lost its top wide receiver, Mike Evans, with a broken collarbone. The Lions put on a masterclass in stopping quarterback Baker Mayfield, but if the Saints’ can’t replicate the success, Mayfield will quickly return to playing at an MVP level. 

Here is a look at the upcoming matchup.

Scoring Offense vs. Scoring Defense (Points Per Game)

Saints Offense – No. 29 | Buccaneers Defense – No. 22

Buccaneers Offense – No. 13 | Saints Defense – No. 27

The Bucs have some major scoring power on offense, but after losing Evans in their recent game, things may be a bit more manageable for the Saints’ young defensive backfield. However, it was the short field and the run defense that did New Orleans in last week against the Chicago Bears. The health of Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving will be very important to watch over the course of the week. 

#Bucs HC Todd Bowles says that Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin Jr. are getting better but he’s not sure if they’re in play for Sunday against the Saints.

— PewterReport 🏴‍☠️ (@PewterReport) October 21, 2025

Point Differential

Saints – minus-61 (No. 28) | Buccaneers – minus-1 (No. 17)

When one of these teams has one win and the other has five, a disparity in point differential isn’t surprising. What will be imperative for the Saints to improve will be their first quarter point margin. It is currently the worst in the NFL with minus-59. Slow starts have been a plague for New Orleans’ efforts.

Passing Offense vs. Passing Defense (Yards Per Game)

Saints Offense – No. 24 | Buccaneers Defense – No. 21

The Tampa defense gets pressure, but does not stop the pass well when the ball gets out of the quarterback’s hands. That will be key for the Saints in this contest. Protecting quarterback Spencer Rattler will be challenging, but if the line can hold up enough, there should be options available in the passing game. 

Each of Rattler’s two highest career passing yardage totals came against Tampa Bay last year. He’ll be looking to repeat that success this year while aiming to be more efficient than he was against the Buccaneers defense in those games.

Buccaneers Offense – No. 9 | Saints Defense – No. 12

Mayfield has played at an MVP level up until he ran into a Detroit Lions-shaped brick wall on Monday night. But there is no question that the quarterback is operating extremely well this year, and it’s not likely that one game will be enough to throw him completely off course. Young corners Kool-Aid McKinstry and Quincy Riley are coming off of strong showings against the Bears’ talented wide receiver room. But Mayfield isn’t likely to play as poorly as Caleb Williams did in Chicago.

The health of previous starting cornerback Isaac Yiadom will be intriguing. He’s been managing a hamstring injury, which has thrust the rookie Riley into a starting role. If Yiadom is back healthy, a decision will need to be made at the cornerback spot. The decision could impact the Saints’ ability to recoup a fourth-round compensatory draft selection after the season.

Rushing Offense vs. Rushing Defense (Yards Per Game)

Saints Offense – No. 23 | Buccaneers Defense – No. 11

New Orleans’ rushing game has hit a bit of a wall in recent weeks. After running for over 100 yards three times in the first four weeks, the team has failed to reach 100 yards rushing in each of the last three games. Now, the team will also be without running back Kendre Miller, who was performing very well in the early goings of the year. With Miller out because of an ACL tear, the team will turn to rookie Devin Neal to partner with veteran back Alvin Kamara.

Buccaneers Offense – No. 24 | Saints Defense – No. 24

With Irving’s availability in question, the Saints could catch a break. In each of the four games that Irving has participated in thus far, the Bucs have run for over 100 rushing yards. Without him, they’ve only surpassed 56 rushing yards once. Against the Lions, the Bucs’ leading rusher was running back Rachaad White who gained just 38 yards on the ground.

Turnover Differential

Saints – plus-1 (No. 13) | Buccaneers – plus-4 (T-No. 7)

New Orleans was in the same place as Tampa up until they turned the ball over four times against the Bears. But both teams remain on the positive side of the turnover equation. Much like last week, turnovers are likely to play a large role in this game. 

Third Down Conversion Rate

Saints Offense – 36.8% (No. 22) | Buccaneers Defense – 36.8% (No. 11)

Buccaneers Offense – 38.2% (No. 17) | Saints Defense – 39.0% (No. 18)

After converting just 30% of their third downs last week, the Saints took a little bit of a dip in this metric from Week 7 to Week 8. The Bucs defense is strong enough to continue to emphasize the Saints’ complications here. Meanwhile, the Saints’ defense looks to match up well. 

Pressure Rate Allowed vs. Generated

Saints Offense – 38.0% (No. 25) | Buccaneers Defense – 41.5% (No. 6)

This is a bad matchup for the Saints and may only get worse. New Orleans lost starting center Erik McCoy to a season-ending bicep injury in their Week 7 loss to the Bears. The Buccaneers generate a lot of pressure. Being down a key difference-maker on the offensive line could have Rattler in for a long day. The Saints do have some promising options to step in at center, but replacing McCoy will be a tall task. 

Buccaneers Offense – 39.3% (No. 28) | Saints Defense – 32.2% (No. 24)

The Saints have shown progress since defensive end Chase Young returned to the lineup. He’s helped to bolster the Saints’ pressures per snap in each game. The Buccaneers could be a positive matchup for Young and the Saints’ pass rushers considering the amount of pressure they surrender. In Week 7, the Lions were able to pressure the Bucs on 51.9% of snaps. This was a big key in keeping Mayfield and the Tampa offense from getting going.