Statistically Speaking: Saints vs. Falcons

By Ross Jackson

It’s a battle to avoid the NFC South basement as the 2-8 New Orleans Saints brace to host their most bitter rivals, the 3-7 Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. 

New Orleans is coming off of a very welcomed bye week following their second win of the year. Meanwhile, the Falcons are in a tailspin, having lost five consecutive games and are set to be without their starting quarterback for potentially the rest of the season and a top offensive weapon for some time. 

The two teams may look close in record, but they may be headed in different directions as they clash in Week 12. 

Scoring Offense vs. Scoring Defense (Points Per Game)

Saints Offense – T- No. 30 (15.5) | Falcons Defense – No. 19 (23.9)

Falcons Offense – No. 27 (19.5) | Saints Defense – T-No. 21 (25.0)

Neither team has shown consistent scoring ability, nor has either played particularly stout defense. This one is shaping up to be a slog to 20 points or a race to 40. Either is completely possible. The Saints are hoping to get their offense churning with the rookie quarterback Tyler Shough at the helm, meanwhile, the Falcons will be leaning on veteran passer Kirk Cousins with Michael Penix Jr. potentially out for the season. 

Point Differential

Saints – minus-95 (No. 29) | Falcons – minus-44 (No. 24)

Both teams have struggled in this category, as expected by their records. Atlanta is in the midst of a five-game losing skid, however, the last three losses have all been by a single score with the last two going to overtime. Atlanta has dropped two games by 20-plus points, while the Saints have suffered three such losses. 

Passing Offense vs. Passing Defense (Yards Per Game)

Saints Offense – No. 20 | Falcons Defense – No. 6

Falcons Offense – No. 18 | Saints Defense – No. 9

Both team’s defenses match-up well against their opposition. And each team is separated by just a couple of spots in the rankings on both sides. But major changes are likely to have an impact. The Saints’ switch to Shough is still in its infancy and not only will the Falcons have Cousins under center, his top pass-catching weapon Drake London might be out with a knee injury. 

Rushing Offense vs. Rushing Defense (Yards Per Game)

Saints Offense – No. 28 | Falcons Defense – No. 28

The final numbers for the Saints’ run game against the Carolina Panthers last week might look unappealing, averaging just 3.3 yards per carry. However, through the first three quarters, that average was slightly over four yards per carry. It wasn’t until the Taysom Hill-led bruising rushing attack ran 13 times in the final 7:35, including kneel downs, that the average plummeted. 

As the Saints loom to build on the success they found with running backs Alvin Kamara and Devin Neal before the bye week. Head coach Kellen Moore also highlighted the run game as an area of focus over the bye week. The team will be hunting explosive plays in this area down the stretch. 

Falcons Offense – No. 13 | Saints Defense – No. 21

Falcons running backs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier are likely licking their chops knowing an inconsistent Saints’ run defense awaits. The Saints’ run defense performed well last week against a strong rushing attack, but has also surrendered totals of 222 and 171 rushing yards in recent games. Which Saints rushing defense shows up on Sunday may be the deciding factor in this game. 

Turnover Differential

Saints – minus-3 (T-No. 19) | Falcons – plus-4 (No. 9)

The Falcons have done a better job of taking care of the football than taking it away in comparison to New Orleans. Atlanta has secured 13 takeaways while the Saints have generated 12. The big difference has been the giveaways. Atlanta has only committed nine while the Saints have turned the ball over 15 times in the season, tied for fifth-most in the league. 

Third Down Conversion Rate

Saints Offense – 38.8% (No. 16) | Falcons Defense – 39.3% (No. 16)

Falcons Offense – 33.9% (No. 28) | Saints Defense – 38.1% (No. 15)

After weeks of ranking toward the bottom of the league in both third down offense and defense for New Orleans, the team has cracked the top-half of the league on both sides. Meanwhile, Atlanta has struggled to start on the field. Veterans Demario Davis, Cameron Jordan and the Saints’ defense will surely be looking to extend that trend. 

Pressure Rate Allowed vs. Generated

Saints Offense – 36.7% (No. 25) | Falcons Defense – 37.9% (No. 5)

Falcons Offense – 32.5% (No. 12) | Saints Defense – 30.9% (No. 25)

Limiting pressure on Shough is going to be a tall task for the Saints’ offensive line. With the recent draft additions of pass rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr., Atlanta’s ability to pressure the quarterback took a major step forward from previous years. The team is now No. 2 in the league with 34 sacks after having the fewest combined sacks over the previous 20 NFL seasons.