Series Snapshot: LSU at Ole Miss

By Hunt Palmer

LSU and Ole Miss scored big rubber match wins on the road last week.

LSU was down to its last strike in Knoxville. Ole Miss entered the ninth down 2-0 and hung a five spot on Florida to steal one in Gainesville. Those series wins mean the winner in Oxford this weekend will be riding some momentum at the halfway point of league play.

Both teams have had their issues. Ole Miss was swept at home by arch rival Mississippi State which was playing without its ace. LSU dropped the first two weekends of SEC play. The Tigers enter the weekend 6-6 in the SEC. Ole Miss is 5-7.

Both of these teams have some serious talent, and both have significant flaws. Because of that, both teams have middling records attached to some real hope that things will improve over the next 18 games.

It starts now.

WHERE ARE THE WARTS?

For LSU, it’s simple. The Tigers are the worst defensive team in the SEC and do not have a third starter to lean on.

Since Cooper Moore went out, LSU has given the ball to Gavin Guidry and Grant Fontenot in back-to-back game threes. Those two worked a combined four innings and allowed nine runs on five hits with six walks and five strikeouts. Three of those runs were unearned because of porous defense, but that’s part of the issue.

Ole Miss, meanwhile, has a one-dimensional offense.

In SEC games, the Rebels are last in the league in hits, 15th in batting average, 14th in runs scored and have the second most strikeouts. They either blast it out of the ballpark, or they don’t score. In one of the three losses to Mississippi State, Ole Miss was 0-for-15 with runners on base.

There is no sign of manufactured runs from Mike Bianco’s group, and it’s been a problem all year long.

By the numbers, these struggles lean LSU’s way in games one and two and Ole Miss’s in game three. Casan Evans, William Schmidt, Zac Cowan and Deven Sheerin strike a lot of hitters out and generally keep the ball in the ballpark. That’s a really good matchup for LSU and keeps the ball out of play for a leaky LSU defense. When the ball gets to the back end of the staff on Sunday, Ole Miss’s power could take center stage against a group that walks too many hitters and generally struggles with consistency.

PITCHING PREVIEW

Ole Miss can really pitch at the top of the staff. That could be a serious problem for LSU.

Hunter Elliott was the tip of the spear on a national title team as a freshman in 2o22. He’s still around thanks to Tommy John Surgery, and he’s a steady presence on Fridays. He’s not an innings eater. Only once all season has he recorded an out in the seventh, and he’s pitched a total of 20.2 innings in four starts during SEC play. He’s good for about five innings. His lack of truly elite stuff drives up his pitch count trying to put hitters away. Still, he doesn’t give up much in the way of hard contact and fights like a warrior on the mound.

Ole Miss’s best stuff comes on Saturday and Sunday. Cade Townsend will be a first round pick this summer. He throws on Saturdays. His fastball hits 98 mph, and the slider is hard and tight at 87-91 mph. It’s real stuff. Townsend left his start at Texas with some shoulder discomfort but has returned. He struck out 14 between his starts against Mississippi State and Florida. He didn’t walk anyone.

Taylor Rabe is the Sunday starter, and he throws gas, too. Rabe will be up to 99 mph. He’s just not as stretched out. His season high in pitches was last week when he hit 73 in 4.2 innings. He’s got 32 strikeouts and four walks on the season, and he’s only given up two long balls.

This is quite clearly the best starting rotation LSU has seen all season. LSU has hit the ball very well the last two weeks, but that’s been a product of feasting on mediocre pitching. There isn’t much of that coming in Oxford. The Tigers will have to step up their game at the plate.

Friday night’s game takes on a lot of importance because Elliott probably the weakest of the three Ole Miss starters, and the Tigers have Evans and Cowan ready to roll.

FIXING FIRST BASE

I would expect to see some of Mason Braun at first base this weekend. It might not be Friday night with a tough, veteran lefty on the mound. That could be a spot for Omar Serna or Eddie Yamin. Not that the next two days offer easier matchups for a freshman left-handed bat, but they are at least right-handed.

Zach Yorke won’t sit on the bench for three days unless someone gets white hot and can’t come out of the lineup. The question becomes, when do you plug him in? He’s clearly struggling and sat on Tuesday. Ole Miss doesn’t have a lesser starter to ease him in against.

How Jay Johnson handles the position all weekend will be interesting.

INJURY BUG

Based on Johnson’s comments on Off the Bench with Jacob Hester and Matt Flynn on Thursday, Chris Stanfield and Seth Dardar are banged up after Tuesday night. Stanfield crashed into the wall in the seventh and irritated his injured left hand. He exited the game. Dardar slid late into second and hurt his ankle. He was also lifted from the action.

Both may play all three games this weekend, but don’t be surprised if they sit for some or all of the action, too. It will be a day-by-day process.

Trent Caraway, Daniel Harden and Tanner Reaves are options to spell the duo should they have to miss time.