2026 SEC Win Totals: Three teams that will go under their win total

By Chris Marler

We continue our way too early predictions and rankings this week with more SEC win total projections. This morning we talked about three teams that will go over their season win total, now it’s time for three that will underperform this upcoming season. 

Texas A&M – Under 8.5 Wins 

Texas A&M lost a boatload of talent to the NFL. They actually were tied for the most of any team in the conference for players selected in the 2026 NFL Draft. There is still a ton of talent on that team, but the amount of concerns outweigh the strengths they have going into next year. They not only have to replace four offensive lineman, they have to replace the most experienced O-Line in the country from a season ago. They also have a new offensive coordinator.

Most importantly, the schedule this year is brutal. Arizona State is in the non-conference slate. They have tricky road games at Missouri and South Carolina and also host a Tennessee team that could be better than advertised. The over/under is 8.5, so they would need four losses to cash the under. 

They play Texas, at LSU, at Oklahoma, and at Alabama. They’ll lose at least two to three of those if not all four and at least one from the South Carolina, Missouri, and Tennessee group. Elko is building a monster in College Station, but it won’t truly begin until next season. 

Here are Fanduel’s 2026 SEC win totals… What is your reaction, and which team(s) are definitely going over / under their total? pic.twitter.com/lPd52YfoB6

— College Football with Sam (@CFBwSam) March 17, 2026

Vanderbilt – Under 6.5 Wins 

This is the lock of the year, and the fact that the total is still listed at 6.5 at sportsbooks is like a Mother Theresa level of generosity to sports bettors everywhere. Vanderbilt is starting a true freshman quarterback. They need seven wins and play six of their nine SEC games against teams with a projected winning record this year. They also have road games at Auburn, Georgia, Mississippi State and Florida. They have home games against NC State, Alabama, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. Their win total should’ve been set at 4.5, and this is basically free money. 

Texas – Under 9.5 Wins 

Texas is such an interesting team this year because you can be high on them and expect them to make the CFP while still getting great value with them going 9-3. Their total is set at 9.5 which makes sense considering how talented their roster is. Offensively, they should be one of the best units in the country. Talent wise, there are some early 2027 mock drafts that have up to four players going in the top 15 of the first round. There’s a case to be made for them having the best overall player in the country at the four most positions in the sport: quarterback, left tackle, EDGE rusher, and wide receiver. 

You only need three losses for them to cash the under, though. They open the season against Ohio State at home who is absolutely loaded. They have road games at Texas A&M, LSU, and Tennessee as well as a neutral site game against Oklahoma. They host Ole Miss and Florida. Even if both those teams don’t live up to their preseason expectations, there’s nothing Steve Sarkisian has done at Texas that says his team won’t overlook a team they should handle with ease. We saw it last year multiple times against teams like Florida, Kentucky, and Mississippi State. 

Texas will go under 9.5 wins, and they’ll still make the CFP. They may even win the whole thing. Still, take the under.