After a wild and tumultuous offseason in Oxford, Ole Miss enters 2026 with high hopes and a massive chip on their shoulder. The schedule isn’t easy, and the turnover on the coaching staff is concerning to say the least. But, this is as talented of an offensive unit as any team in the country. Is it enough to get a first year head coach back to the CFP? Let’s take a look.
Strength of Schedule: 8th in the SEC
Ole Miss opens the season with one of the most underrated non-conference games of the season against Louisville in Nashville. They then jump right into the meat of the schedule with the game of the year in the SEC against LSU. Things could get tricky a week later with a road trip to the Swamp and then a bye in week five. The back half of the schedule includes a four game stretch against Texas, Auburn, Georgia, and Oklahoma in consecutive weeks.
It’s the fifth toughest schedule as we illustrated in our previous look at the toughest schedules in the SEC.
Biggest Game of the Year: LSU
There isn’t much more that needs to be said. Their former coach returns to town in a game that is the most anticipated of any this season in the entire country. A win against Lane Kiffin would make the celebration after the 2014 Alabama game look like child’s play. It’s impossible to overstate just how much this game means to Ole Miss, its team, and its fans. September 19th will be pure cinema.
Not a must-win, but a can’t lose: Louisville
A lot of people have one game in September circled on their calendar. But, there are two games against teams not named LSU that could ruin their entire season before it ever really begins. The Louisville game is a neutral site game with massive implications for both teams, but a lot more to lose for a team like Ole Miss. The line was set at -6.5 in favor of the Rebels quite some time ago and hasn’t moved, which is telling in and of itself.
Louisville spent a lot in the portal and are a sleeper in the ACC behind Miami with many prognosticators predicting them to finish as high as second in the league this year. Losing out of the gates would be a nightmare scenario for Ole Miss to start the season, and it’s not far-fetched to think it could happen. Jeff Brohm is a good coach. Louisville is a challenging offensive team, and you know the Cardinals have had that game circled all offseason while the Rebels may be already looking forward to what’s ahead two weeks later.
Trap Game: at Florida
This is the biggest trap game of the year in the SEC, and no one seems to be talking about it. The Ole Miss-LSU game has been talked about ad nauseum since Lane Kiffin left Oxford for Baton Rouge. It will be the highest watched and most anticipated game in the country this season. Whoever wins or loses will have a massive uphill battle waiting for them the following week. Getting back up emotionally, physically, and mentally a week later is going to be very hard.
For Ole Miss, it’s even harder. LSU at least gets to return home for their next game. The Rebels head to the Swamp. If you’re wondering how tough of a place that is to play for a team with high expectations and little focus, ask Texas. They found out last year when the Gators upset the Longhorns, 29-21.
Toughest Stretch: Week 8 through 11
Texas, Auburn, Georgia, and Oklahoma in four consecutive weeks is nightmare fuel for almost any team in the country. Three of those four teams have playoff expectations, one is a massive revenge game, and the other (Auburn) is the last program and offense you want to see if your team is tired and ready to sleepwalk through a game. It’s not a bold prediction to think they can go 1-3 in that stretch. Almost any team in the country would do the same.
Ceiling and Floor: 10-2 and 7-5
Ole Miss is going to be really good, and I love the future of this program under Pete Golding. Buy all the stock you can for the way he’s building Ole Miss from the ground up and the resources they’re committing to the program as well. The thing with Ole Miss that is impossible to overlook is the combination of the schedule and a first year head coach.
I know, I know, Pete Golding coached in three CFP games a season ago, but by all means this is the first full season-long sample size as a head coach. He has the talent on the roster to win games at a high clip. But, the issue is his inexperience and how it can creep in during a full season. We’ve seen it with all coaches at some point, especially in this league. We’ve seen it with better coaches than Pete Golding too. Nick Saban lost to UL-Monroe and his final four games in 2007 at Alabama. Kirby Smart lost to Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Florida, Ole Miss, and even Vanderbilt in year one at Georgia. There are four games on this Ole Miss schedule that are either toss ups or they’ll be outright underdogs in.
Even if they win three of those four, who’s to say they don’t lose a game they shouldn’t? Louisville, Florida, and Auburn are all very dangerous for this team.
Season Prediction: 8-4
The talent on the roster is still really good, and Pete Golding will have this team consistently in the top five or six teams in the SEC every year. He may be a better head coach than a coordinator because he clearly gets the CEO aspect of this role really well. Still, in year one the schedule is too hard.
Louisville – W
Charlotte – W
LSU – L
At Florida – W
At Vanderbilt – W
Missouri – W
At Texas – L
Auburn – L
Georgia – L
At Oklahoma – W
Wofford – W
Mississippi State – W
