Fittingly, a night dedicated to one of LSU’s great signal-callers will come down to the two quarterbacks.
Future first-rounders will flood the Tiger Stadium field on Saturday night, but Arch Manning and Sam Leavitt will decide who wins the ballgame. Neither may be selected in the first 32 picks come April. A league that drafted Christian Ponder, Anthony Richardson and Josh Rosen certainly could nab Manning and/or Leavitt in the first, but I’m not counting on it.
Players like Colin Simmons, Cam Coleman, Trey’Dez Green, Jordan Seaton and a handful of others are safer NFL bets. And they impact Saturday night’s showdown. But it’s going to come down to Manning and Leavitt.
Why?
On LSU’s side, it’s hard to imagine the Tigers pushing the pile in the running game. Texas has faced the top three backs in the SEC. Jamal Roberts from Missouri averages 119 yards per game. He mustered 66 on 19 carries versus the Longhorns last week. DeSean Bishop at Tennessee is next at 118.4 yards per game. When Texas showed up on the Tennessee River in September, he managed 34 yards on 11 carries with a long of seven yards. Then there’s Florida’s Jadan Baugh. He did reach 91 yards rushing at Texas, right at his season average, but it took 25 carries to get there.
LSU’s ground game has vastly improved over last season’s putrid effort, but the Tigers still rank seventh in the SEC in yards per carry and totaled 77 yards on 33 carries last week against Alabama.
Bishop ripped off five yards per carry against the Tide and finished his day with 19 yards and two scores in Tennessee’s toppling of Alabama.
If LSU gets Dilin Jones going on Saturday night, Charlie Weis Jr. would be wise to ride him. It’s just unlikely. The more predictable situation is Leavitt throwing 45 times to move the ball. He fired 47 times last week, which netted 380 of LSU’s 457 yards against Alabama. The problem was not the yardage, but the 13 points LSU scored.
The Tigers needed at least 31 points to keep up with Keelon Russell and the Tide. That may not be the case Saturday as Texas averages a touchdown fewer points per game than Alabama against SEC teams.
Manning’s rushing attack is without Hollywood Smothers and averages 3.5 yards per carry, which ranks 11th in the SEC. The Tigers boast the second-best run defense in the league, and star Longhorn left tackle Trevor Goosby is out for the year.
Expect the two coaches, Steve Sarkisian and Lane Kiffin, to lean on the ground game. And expect it to produce little fruit.
That puts the heat on Leavitt and Manning.
Both quarterbacks are capable. They’ve had monster moments this fall. Manning led a furious fourth-quarter rally against Ohio State and threw for a hair under 300 yards with three touchdowns and no turnovers last week at Missouri. Leavitt looked like a Heisman contender at Auburn and leads the SEC in total offense by nearly 20 yards.
Both have been under the microscope for years: Leavitt as a CFP starter two years ago and the top portal quarterback, and Manning as, well, a Manning.
Both have led their teams to big wins and shrunk in frustrating losses.
Both have a decision to make in December or January about coming back to be a highly paid college QB or taking a shot at the highest level.
Saturday night, Bert Jones’ No. 7 will shine brightly over Tiger Stadium’s turf because he used his rocket of a right arm to pilot the Tigers to huge wins nearly 60 years ago. Six decades later, it’ll be up to two more supremely talented throwers to decide the first matchup between the Tigers and Longhorns in Death Valley since 1953. Jones was 2 years old.
With a win, Texas inches closer to the CFP with Arkansas and Texas A&M left. Those two have combined to post a 2-10 SEC record. LSU has a daunting trip to Knoxville on deck, but that provides another chance at a huge win.
Despite last week’s disappointment, LSU is technically still in the fight.
Football is the ultimate team game. They say every man has to do his one-eleventh. That’s true. Some elevenths are just a little bit more important.
Saturday is about the signal-callers.
